24 Sept: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | September 24, 2019

Safe haven demand continues to see demand for the Jpy, Chf and Gold all feeling the benefit, with Silver outperforming all of them on Monday in rising by 3.5%. This theme generally appears set to remain in place today although in the absence of any major data it could end up being a choppy, sideways session.

The Kiwi performed well on Monday and has squeezed 50bp off its lows against the US$, and it is possible that we may see a bit more of a rally although with further rate cuts likely from both the RBNZ and the RBA in coming days, the upside does seem rather limited. RBA Governor Lowe will be closely watched this evening when he provides an economic outlook. AudNzd does seem a bit toppish and may be a sell above 1.0800.

The move in the Euro seems has turned the medium term momentum indicators a little lower and a test of the downside would not surprise although strong bids remain intact towards 1.0900 so I don’t expect too much directional action right now.

Stocks are choppy/sideways – best left alone.

I still like to sell Gold at 1530/40, but with a tight SL placed above 1256 (double top)

Stocks are choppy but also look constructive in the longer term charts, while WTI is best left alone right now I think.

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*Trade of the day: September 24, 2019; 8:37 AM(AET)                  

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.

Sell EurUsd @ 1.1035. SL @ 1.1060, TP @ 1.0975

Buy EurUsd @ 1.0960. SL @ 1.0940, TP @ 1.1050

Sell AudUsd @ 0.6795. SL @ 0.6815, TP @ 0.6735

Buy AudUsd @ 0.6725. SL @ 0.6695, TP @ 0.6785

Sell NzdUsd @ 0.6315. SL @ 0.6335, TP @ 0.6250

Sell Gold @ 1535. SL @ 1560, TP @ 1485

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EurUsd:  The Euro fell sharply after the PMIs were released on Monday, reaching a low of 1.0965 ahead of a slow squeeze back towards 1.100, where it currently sits. The IFO, due today, is likely to keep the pressure on the downside and if so, below 1.0965 would then allow a move towards 1.0940/50 ahead of the 1.0925/27 double bottom. I don’t really see it down here today, but if wrong, below 1.0925 opens the way to 1.0900 and to 1.0860 (76.4% of 1.0340/1.2555), and further out there is a weekly chart gap that would take us to 1.0772. On the topside, the session high was at 1.1025 and it may struggle to get back above here today. If wrong, look for a further squeeze towards 1.1040/50 and then possibly to the September 18/19 highs at 1.1072/75. Beyond that further resistance would arrive at 1.1100/10 (38.2% of 1.1411/1.0925/), above which would then target 1.1125(61.8% of 1. 1249/1.0925) and the 26 August high of 1.1163. Further out, resistance then lies at 1.1170/75(76.4% of 1. 1249/1.0925/100 DMA) and then at 1.1245 (200 DMA) although that remains some way off. A range trade of 1.1025/1.0940 may well cover it today

 

US$Jpy:  saw a quick move down to 107.30 in early European trade but has spent the rest of the day squeezing back to 107.50, where it currently sits. The short term momentum indicators are now mixed and a rangebound session either side of the current levels would not really surprise. If so, the initial support will again arrive at 107.30, a break of which will see bids at 107.10/20 (minor) and at 106.92 (38.2% of 104.43/108.47)although I don’t think we head down there today. If wrong, steeper losses could take the pair towards106.62 (6 Sept low) and then towards 106.45 (50% pivot of 104.43/108.47). On the topside, the initial resistance lies at 107.75/80 and then again at 107.95/108.00 (200 HMA/100 DMA). Back above here looks unlikely now, but if wrong, further gains could see a test of the Wednesday/Thursday highs at around 108.50.  I suspect we are in for something like a 107.20/80 range  today, but with the dailies turning lower I prefer  to look to sell into strength with a SL placed above 108.10.

 

AudUsd:  The Aud$ remains heavy on Tuesday, currently at 0.6775, but above Friday’s 3 week low at 0.6760, with traders likely to stand aside now until the RBA Governor, Lowe, speaks this evening to give his economic update. The 4 hour momentum indicators are now mixed/mildly positive although I think the upside is rather limited ahead of Lowe, but if we do see a short squeeze look for offers to arrive at 0.6785/90 (minor) and then at 0.6810 (Friday high) ahead of 0.6830/35 (200 HMA). On the downside, we currently remain near Fibo support at 0.6765 (61.8% of 0.6687/0.6894) and the trend low of 0.6760, which will provide support through Asian trade. A break lower would allow a move towards 0.6750 (minor) and then to 0.6735(76.4%).  Further out, I still suspect that we may see a return to 0.6700/10 as an RBA rate cut looms on the horizon, possibly next week, below which would open the way back to 0.6688, where we have a minor double bottom( 3 Sept/26 August lows) and which comes ahead of 0.6675 (7 Aug low). Below 0.6675, there is minor support at 0.6660, but under there would open the way to 0.6500 and, further out, the next major Fibo level is not seen until 0.6250 (76.4% of 0.4773 (April 2001)/1.1082 (July 2011)). Selling rallies towards 0.6800, with a SL at 0.6815 seems to be the plan for Tuesday.

 

NzdUsd: The Kiwi has enjoyed a more positive session on Monday, in recovering from its new 4 year low of 0.6255, so far reaching a high of 0.6298. The initial resistance now lies right here at 0.6300 (23.6% of 0.6450/0.6255/100 HMA), a break of which could then see a run back towards 0.6330 (38.2% of 0.6450/0.6255). Further resistance would then lie at 0.6355/60, above which we could see a squeeze back to 0.6375-80 and then to 0.6400/10. Above here, unlikely in the near term, would allow a move towards 0.6420/25 and on to the trend high of 0.6450 (12 Sept). On the downside, support will be seen at 0.6270/75 (minor) ahead of the 0.6255 low. A break of this – unlikely today – would then open the way to the next meaningful support, seen at the September 2015 low at 0.6235, which should be strong if/when we get there. Below here though, more distant bids would arrive at the August 2015 low at 0.6125, which could be where we are headed if the RBNZ cut rates, which seems highly likely. I still prefer to look to the short side, and selling rallies with a SL placed above 0.6330 today.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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