25 July: Forecast: Stock Indices, Commodities

By | July 25, 2017


S&P: 2467
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred Strategy: Neutral

No change. It has been another range bound session (2463/70) and more of the same looks likely ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting although there are plenty of corporate results due this week which could add to the volatility.

With the daily momentum indicators still pointing higher, further gains would seem possible in the days ahead although the short term charts are looking a little mixed on Tuesday so some caution is warranted and another rangebound session would not surprise. Further out, a continuation of the squeeze to the topside looks likely  although note that the DJI was unable to follow through on the topside to make new highs of its own last week, and is closing towards its lows today.

As before, I prefer to remain sidelined at these levels.

Resistance Support
2495 Minor 2462 21 July low
2490 Minor 2457 19 July low
2485 Minor 2447 18 July low
2480 Minor 2444 (23.6% of 2345/2475)
2475 20 July high -All-time high 2425 (38.2% of 2345/2475

DJI: 21493
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred Strategy: Neutral

Caution is the best plan here after another range trade day on Monday (21442/21528). Sidelined.

Resistance Support
21750 Minor 21442 Session low
21700 Minor 21415 18 July low
21650 Minor 21350 (23.6% of 20474/21626)
21626 14 July high – all-time high 21250 Minor
21528 Session high 21185 (38.2% of 20474/21626)

ASX SPI: 5638
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred Strategy: Neutral

The SPI saw a steep fall, to 5592 early in the Monday session, ahead of a slow and steady recovery through the balance of the day, to close more or less unchanged at 5640, sitting right on the 200 DMA.

The charts still look pretty neutral so I would not be too involved although the dailies may be hinting at further downside tests, and below 5590 would allow a run back towards 5525 albeit that this remains a long way off.

On the topside, resistance will be seen at 5650, 5665 and then again at 5700 although I don’t think we see it back here today.

Resistance Support
5729 14 July high 5640 200 DMA
5717 20 July high 5620 Minor
5700 21 July high 5593 (38.2% of 5029/5944)
5665 200 HMA 5570 Minor
5647 Session high 5550 Minor

XAUUSD: 1255
24 Hour: Neutral- Possibly prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Mildly Bullish
Preferred Strategy: Neutral. Possibly buying dips, with a tight SL placed below the 21 July low of 1243 may be a plan.

Gold remains firm although it has had a tight session and something similar looks possible for Tuesday

As before, the daily momentum indicators still seem to point to further gains in the days ahead, where good resistance should now be seen at 1260/65, but a break of which could then see a run towards 1275.

Such a move to the topside would depends on further dollar weakness, and if that fails to materialise then we could see a downside reversal, and back below 1250,  support would be seen at 1240/45 and then again at 1230/35 which should be strong, although right now it looks unlikely to be bothered.

Resistance Support
1275 (76.4% of 1295/1208) 1251 Session low
1270 Minor 1243 21 July low
1265 Descending trend resistance 1235 19 July low /20 July low
1261 (61.8% of 1295/1208) 1230 200 DMA /200 WMA
1258 Session high 1225 Neckline

XAGUSD: 16.45
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Prefer to buy dips
Preferred Strategy: Neutral

As with Gold, Silver had a tight session although it did squeeze slightly higher, and similar outcome, close to current levels may lie ahead today.

With the dailies pointing higher, if the 16.59 session high can be taken out we could be in for a run towards 16.75 and possibly back towards 16.90/17.05 although not yet I suspect, and much will depend on the dollar.

The short term momentum indicators look a little less constructive, and on the downside back below the session low of 16.42 would find bids at 16.30 and at 16.05/15, and then below 16.00 at 15.85/95.

Resistance Support
17.08 15 June high 16.42 Session low
16.90 (50% of 18.65/15.18)/29 June high 16.30 Rising trend support
16.75 (61.8% pivot of 16.75/15.18) 16.13 20 July low/200 HMA
16.65 Minor 16.05 (38.2% of 15.18/16.59)
16.59 Session high 15.96 17 July low

WTI: 46.45
24 Hour: Neutral. Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred Strategy: Neutral

WTI rallied following the OPEC announcement, from a low of 45.38, and has finished at session high of 46.45.

The dailies remain neutral, suggesting that further gains will be hard to come by, but on the topside minor resistance will now be seen at 46.65 ahead of 21 July’s high of 47.18 and then at 47.70/85 although this currently looks over the horizon.

On the downside, with the short term momentum looking flat, a choppy, sideways session would seem to be in store. 46.00 will provide minor support ahead of the day’s low of 45.38. Under here  could see a run towards 44.95/45.00 although this looks unlikely today, but if wrong, below this could then see a run back to 44.20 and then to 43.65/75.

Resistance Support
47.85 (50% pivot of 53.73/42.03) 46.00 Minor
47.71 20 July high 45.38 Session low
47.18 21 July high 44.96 13 July low
46.65 100 HMA 44.20 (61.8% of 42.03/47.71)
46.45 Session high 43.63 10 July low