25 June: US$ under some downside pressure. WTI strongly higher. EU CPI, US Q1 GDP & RBNZ Meeting in focus this week.

By | June 25, 2018

 

The US$ ended the week under some downside pressure, not helped by some soft US data (Philly Fed) and with the Euro helped along by some reasonable PMI figures. The Chf and the Jpy were both in demand, as safe-haven requirements built, on the back of the looming trade war between the US and its various partners, while Sterling was underpinned by the BoE chief economist, Haldane, voting for a UK rate rise, boosting chance of Aug move. The Aud and the Kiwi both saw a decent late reversal, helped along in part by slightly higher commodity prices. Oil had a big gain, with WTI putting on 4% due to the much smaller than expected output raise by OPEC after resistance from Iran. Stocks put on around 0.3%, allowing the DJI to end an 8 day losing streak.

The coming week will be active throughout although much of the data will be of a secondary nature. The week will kick off fairly quietly, with today’s focus being on the German IFO Business Climate/Expectations, while Tuesday will look to speeches from the Fed’s Bostic/Kaplan for guidance. Wednesday will see the UK Financial Stability Report and a speech from BOE Governor, Mark Carney, ahead of the US May Durable Goods Orders. Thursday will open with the RBNZ Interest Rate Decision – no change expected – ahead of a busy EU/US session which will include the German CPI, the US GDP/PCE figures for Q1, while the week will end with another heavy calendar, which will include the  German May Retail Sales, the UK Q1 GDP, EU June CPI and the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Have a good week.

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CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1656
Res  1.1675  1.1695  1.1725
Sup  1.1635  1.1615  1.1600
USDJPY: 109.98
Res  110.25  110.50  110.75
Sup  109.80  109.55  109.20
GBPUSD: 1.3264
Res  1.3300  1.3315  1.3335
Sup  1.3225  1.3200  1.3175
USDCHF: 0.9876
Res  0.9900  0.9925  0.9950
Sup  0.9870  0.9850  0.9825
AUDUSD: 0.7439
Res  0.7455  0.7480  0.7500
Sup  0.7420  0.7400  0.7380
NZDUSD: 0.6907
Res  0.6920  0.6950  0.6975
Sup  0.6890  0.6870  0.6850
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P.fs: 2756.28
Res  2770.00  2785.00  2795.00
Sup  2745.00  2735.00  2720.00
DJ30.fs: 24579.50
Res  24665.00  24795.00  24925.00
Sup  24495.00  24400.00  24340.00
SPI200.fs: 6177
Res  6195  6240  6295
Sup  6145  6120  6095
XAUUSD: 1269
Res  1275  1280  1285
Sup  1260  1255  1250
XAGUSD: 16.44
Res  16.50  16.60  16.70
Sup  16.35  16.25  16.15
WTI.fs: 69.25
Res  69.35  70.00  70.50
Sup  68.65  68.15  67.60