25 May: Cautious FOMC Minutes pressure US$. Stocks, commodities firm. NZ Budget, UK Q1 GDP & secondary US data ahead.

By | May 25, 2017

 

Having shrugged off the China downgrade by Moody’s yesterday and then having traded steadily through Mario Draghi’s speech, in which he pretty much maintained the status quo as far as the ECB is concerned, the dollar ended the day weaker after the release of the cautious FOMC Minutes, which were taken by traders as being slightly dovish. Stocks ended unchanged but firm, with the S+P nudging 2405, while the metals were a bit higher, underpinned by the softer dollar. WTI is unchanged, waiting for the OPEC Meeting later today.

It is a holiday in much of Europe (Ascension Day) on Thursday but could still be a busy session, beginning with the NZ Budget Release, which might provide something directional for the Kiwi. From Australia we get a speech from the RBA Asst. Governor, Debelle but that is about it until Europe get in, when the main focus will be on the UK Provisional Q1 GDP (exp 0.3% qq, 2.1% yy)  and the Total Business Investment (exp 0.2% qq). The US will have a busy session, and aside from disseminating the FOMC Minutes we will get the release of the Wholesale Inventories (Apr  -exp 0.2%),  Goods Trade Balance, Kansas Fed Mfg Activity Jobless Claims and a speech from the Fed’s Bullard. On top of all that, don’t forget that the OPEC Meeting will take place today in Vienna, meaning that WTI could become pretty volatile later in the session once a statement is issued.

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1218
Res  1.1235  1.1265  1.1300
Sup  1.1200  1.1170  1.1140
USDJPY: 111.51
Res  111.80  112.10  112.30
Sup  111.45  111.20  111.00
GBPUSD: 1.2971
Res  1.2975  1.3000  1.3035
Sup  1.2955  1.2935  1.2915
USDCHF: 0.9730
Res  0.9750  0.9775  0.9805
Sup  0.9720  0.9705  0.9690
AUDUSD: 0.7504
Res  0.7515  0.7525  0.7540
Sup  0.7485  0.7470  0.7445
NZDUSD: 0.7047
Res  0.7055  0.7070  0.7090
Sup  0.7030  0.7000  0.6985
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P: 2403
Res  2405  2410  2415
Sup  2395  2390  2385
DJI: 20995
Res  21120  21010  21160
Sup  20890  20830  20765
ASX SPI: 5784
Res  5800  5815  5835
Sup  5770  5760  5745
XAUUSD: 1258
Res  1260  1265  1270
Sup  1255  1250  1245
XAGUSD: 17.19
Res  17.30  17.40  17.50
Sup  17.10  17.00  16.90
WTI: 51.24
Res  51.85  52.25  53.05
Sup  50.55  50.00  49.50