25 May: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | May 25, 2018

The US$ is a little heavy heading into Friday, not helped by the slide in US yields, and it looks as though this could continue as we head towards the weekend. It all looks a little choppy though and I am not sure that we see anything directional, but out of choice I still prefer to look for levels to sell the Euro, given the growing concerns over the Italian political situation. On the charts, US$Jpy continues to look heavy, as does EurJpy. EurAud also looks rather heavy and selling rallies here is preferred. Gold may be turning higher but I like to look for levels to sell it as I think that eventually the US$ uptrend will resume and will renew the downside pressure on the commodities. WTI looks a little heavy right now and may want to take a stronger look at 70.00 and below.

It has been another busy day on Thursday, with safe haven demand in the currency markets seeing a rush into the Yen and the Chf, although the other currency pairs are mostly rangebound. Sterling did see a run higher after better than expected UK Retail Sales but then ran out of steam, while the Euro remains heavy, just above its recent trend lows. The DXY fell by 0.23% to 93.69, after hitting a high of 93.91, as the dollar came under some pressure after the US existing home sales fell 2.5% in April to 5.46 mio against expectations of a fall of 5.56 mio. The initial jobless claims rose by 11K to a seasonally adjusted 234K for the week, missing economists’ forecast for a drop to 220K. US Yields took a hit, with the 10 Years heading back under 3% (2.98%), which did not help the dollar’s cause.

US stocks ended slightly lower after Donald Trump canceled a planned summit with North Korea’s Kim Jung Un. WTI settled sharply lower, down 1.5%, after reports that OPEC is considering scaling back production cuts to counter a possible shortage in global supplies weighed on sentiment. Gold jumped more than 1% on the back of rising safe-haven demand after Trump cancelled his meeting with President Kim.

Friday will begin with the Tokyo CPI, although there is then nothing to go on until the German IFO Business Climate/Expectations and the Preliminary UK GDP (exp0.1%qq, 1.2%yy) and Total Business Investment (exp 0.2%qq, 2.3%yy). The focus in the US will be on the April Durable Goods Orders (exp -1.4%, Ex Transport +0.5%). There will also be plenty of CB Speakers, including The Feds Powell, Kaplan, Evans Bostic; The BOEs Carney and Coeure and the Buba’s Weidmann. Have a good weekend.

 *Trade of the day: 5/25/2018 6:49 AM (AET)                           

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

Sell EurUsd @ 1.1780. SL @ 1.1830, TP @ 1.1600

Buy EurUsd@ 1.1660. SL @ 1.1610, TP @ 1.1780