25 Nov: US holiday fails to stop the Yen from plumbing new lows or stocks from reaching new all time highs.

By | November 25, 2016

Even in a quiet US holiday market there has been plenty of action, notably in the Yen which has continued to weaken dramatically and also in the US stock markets, which despite the holiday has seen the S+P and the DJI both climb to new highs in the futures markets. Elsewhere it has been a mostly choppy but fairly directionless session.

The NZ Trade Balance and the Japan CPI figures will start the ball rolling on Friday, with the UK Provisional Q3 GDP set to be the main focus in Europe (exp 0.3%qq, 2.3%yy). Although a long weekend in the US, markets will be open and will see the release of the Provisional October Wholesale Inventories (exp 0.3%), Goods Trade Balance (Exp -$59.2) and the flash Services/Composite PMI for November.

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.0551
Res  1.0585  1.0615  1.0660
Sup  1.0525  1.0500  1.0460
USDJPY: 113.37
Res  113.55  113.80  114.00
Sup  113.00  112.60  112.10
GBPUSD: 1.2451
Res  1.2490  1.2510  1.2555
Sup  1.2410  1.2385  1.2360
USDCHF: 1.0173
Res  1.0195  1.0225  1.0250
Sup  1.0145  1.0065  1.0100
AUDUSD: 0.7407
Res  0.7420  0.7435  0.7445
Sup  0.7380  0.7365  0.7335
NZDUSD: 0.7000
Res  0.7010  0.7030  0.7055
Sup  0.6985  0.6970  0.6950
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S+P: 2206
Res  2206  2210  2220
Sup  2192  2180  2170
DJI: 19111
Res  19120  19150  19200
Sup  19075  19030  18975
ASX SPI: 5514
Res  5518  5540  5568
Sup  5500  5476  5466
GOLD: 1184
Res  1190  1200  1210
Sup  1180  1170  1160
SILVER: 16.27
Res  16.50  16.65  16.85
Sup  16.15  16.00  15.80
OIL (WTI): 47.97
Res  48.50  49.20  49.80
Sup  47.50  47.10  46.40

 

Indices/commodities
S&P Futures 2206
Resistance Support
2225 Minor 2197 Session low
2220 Minor 2191 23 Nov low
2215 Minor 2183 200 HMA
2210 Minor 2178 21 Nov low
2207 Session high  /All time high 2164 (23.6% of 2028/2207)

Bias

Despite the markets being closed for the US holiday the futures markets continued to ratchet higher, today reaching 2206 and currently trading near the highs.

As before, the dailies still look constructive so it would not surprise if do see a test of higher ground in the sessions  ahead, although the 4 hour charts do show a degree of bearish divergence so some caution is required. On the downside, back under 2200 will find bids at 2191 (23 Nov low), beneath which will find bids at 2180 and again at 2165. For the time being a neutral stance is required, but given the look of the dailies, buying near term dips still seems to be the longer term plan.sp

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Prefer to buy dips
DJI Futures 19111
Resistance Support
19500 Minor 19031 Session low
19400 Minor 18973 23 Nov low
19300 Minor 18911 22 Nov low
19200 Minor 18832 21 Nov low
19117 Session high   /All time high 18792 16 Nov low

Bias

Ditto S+P. The futures markets continued to ratchet higher with the DJI today reaching 19117, currently trading near the session highs.

The dailies remain positive so buying dips still seems to be the plan although a cautious stance is required while the 4 hour indicators do show a degree of bearish divergence, but maintaining a core long position does seem to be the preferred strategy.dji

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Prefer to buy dips
ASX SPI 5514
Resistance Support
5590 Minor 5476 Session low
5568 1 August high 5465 Minor
5540 Minor 5430 100 HMA
5525 Minor 5405 23 Nov low/ (23.6% of 5029/5519)
5519 Session high 5385 200 HMA

Bias                

The ASX headed up to a high of 5519, currently not so far away, and beyond here will find little to stop it heading on to the August high of 5568, which should be strong resistance. If wrong, further gains could then see a run towards the August 2015 high at 5671.

On the downside, if we head back below 5500, support will be seen at the session low of 5476 and then again at 5465 and at 5430.. Buying dips is preferred.spi

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Mildly bullish
GOLD 1184
Resistance Support
1233 16 Nov high 1180 Session low
1218 (23.6% of 1337/1181) 1172 (61.8% of 1046/1375)
1210 100 HMA 1164 8 Feb low
1200 Minor 1157 4 Feb low
1190 Session high 1122 (76.4% of 1046/1375)

Bias

Gold has been rangebound on Thursday (1180/90), leaving the outlook unchanged.

With the 4 hour momentum indicators aligning with the dailies to point lower, a sterner test of 1180 would seem to be on the cards, below which would find bids at 1165/70 and again at 1155 but below which there is little to hold the price up  until 1120.The topside will find offers at 1190, 1200 and then again 1215/20 although this is now looking over the horizon unless we see a sharp selloff in the dollar. Staying short is preferred, looking to sell into the 1200/05 area. SL above 1220.gold

24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Mildly bearish
SILVER 16.27
Resistance Support
17.23 16 Nov high 16.16 23 Nov low
17.00 Minor 16.00 Minor
16.85 (23.6% of 18.98/16. 17) 15.81 1 June low
16.75 200 HMA 15.50 Minor
16.55 100 HMA 15.38 (76.4% of 13.64/21.13)

Bias

Silver has been rangebound on Thursday (16.22/40), leaving the outlook unchanged.

Further losses seem to be in store and a test of 16.00 seems likely, below which would allow a run towards 15.80 and potentially to 15.40. On the topside, above the session high of 16.40, resistance will be seen 16.65, and again at 16.85, which if seen would now appear to be a decent sell area, with a SL placed above 17.00.silver

24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term:  Mildly bearish
OIL (WTI) 47.97
Resistance Support
51.50 Minor 47.15 22 Nov low
50.90 25 Oct high 46.70 100 HMA
49.80 (76.4% of 52.19/42.18) 46.44 (38.2% of 42.18/45.49.17) /Monday gap low
49.17 22 Nov high 46.00 100 DMA
48.40 23 Nov high 45.15 18 Nov low

Bias

WTI has been rangebound on Thursday (47.78/48.23), leaving the outlook unchanged.

While the dailies remain positive, the 4 hour momentum indicators appear less supportive following the strong rejection of the Monday rally to 49.17, so a cautious stance is warranted. As with yesterday, buying dips, towards 47.00, is mildly preferred, with a tight SL placed at around 46.70. Below 46.50 could see a sharp acceleration to the downside, potentially back to 44.00/50wti

24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Mildly bullish

EURUSD: 1.0551
Resistance Support
1.0703/10 (23.6% of 1.1282/1.0517) /17 Nov high 1.0525/22 23 Nov low/3 Dec 2015 low
1.0657 22 Nov high 1.0500 Minor
1.0615 100 HMA 1.0462 March 2015 low
1.0600 Minor 1.0400 Minor
1.0580 Minor 1.0335 Minor

Bias                                                                                         

€/Usd has been rangebound on Thursday, trading a range of 1.0517/84 before closing in the middle, pretty much unchanged on the day although notably, it did briefly take out the Dec 2015 low of 1.0521. The short term momentum indicators are currently neutral but given the negative look of the daily and weekly charts, further downside momentum seems likely,  and below 1.0517 would open the way to the March 2013 low at 1.0461. Below there, there is very little to hold the Euro up ahead of 1.0300 and then again, not a lot until we reach parity. As before, trading from the short side and selling into near term strength, seems to be the plan, with resistance levels now seen at 1.0580, 1.0600 and at 1.0615. Selling into these areas with a SL placed above 1.0660 is the preferred strategy.
24 Hour: Bullish divergence  -Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Bearish

Economic data highlights will include:

US Wholesale Inventories (Oct), Goods Trade Balance (Oct), Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count

Meta Trader
EURUSD: 4 Hour

euro

euro1


USDJPY: 113.37
Resistance Support
114.60 100 DMA 113.00 Minor
114.20 (61.8% of 121.05/98.94) 112.60 Minor
114.00 Minor 112.10 Minor
113.80 29 March high 111.00 Minor
113.53 Session high 110.60 (23.6% of 101.18/103.53)

Bias

There is no stopping the Yen train as it continues to tumble against all major counterparts, currently trading against the dollar at close to the trend highs of 103.53.

The daily momentum indicators still point higher, and above 113.50/55 the next Fibo level is seen at 114.20 (61.8% of 121.05/98.94) beyond which we could see a run towards 116.00 and even to 117.80 (76.4% of 121.05/98.94) As before, although the dollar remains strong, – and maintaining a core long dollar position seems desirable,-  the 4 hour momentum indicators are extremely overbought so some caution is warranted as a correction could happen at any time and it could be quite a sharp one.  If we do see a profit-taking dip, minor support will arrive at 113.00, at 112.50/60, but with the first Fibo support not seen until 110.60. Stay long but leave stops fairly tight.

24 Hour: Becoming Overbought – Prefer to buy dips Medium Term:  Bullish

Economic data highlights will include:

Japan CPI

Meta Trader
USDJPY: 4 Hour

yen

yen-1


GBPUSD: 1.2451
Resistance Support
1.2673 11 Nov high 1.2401 Session low
1.2600 Minor 1.2385 Minor
1.2560 Minor 1.2360 23 Nov low / Rising trend support
1.2511 22 Nov high/21 Nov high 1.2325 Minor
1.2491 Session high 1.2301 18 Nov low

Bias                                                                         

Cable has been rangebound on Thursday (1.2401/1.2493) leaving the outlook unchanged.

The 4 hour momentum indicators are flat, as are the dailies, suggesting a cautious stance is needed ahead of what looks likely to be another choppy session, and as we said before, if the US$ rally continues Cable is going to find it hard to make too much positive headway. If wrong, above the 21/22 Nov high of 1.2511 could then see Sterling head to the 14 Nov high of 1.2592, and beyond that, towards the mid November high at 1.2673. Back below 1.2400, the downside will again see bids at 1.2360 and then again at various levels down to 1.2300, below which could then see another run towards 1.2245/50. Overall, a choppy sideways 23 Nov would not really surprise.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term:  Neutral

Economic data highlights will include:

UK Provisional GDP, Total Business Investment, CBI Distributive Trade Survey – Realised

Meta Trader
GBPUSD: 4 Hour

gbp


USDCHF: 1.0173
Resistance Support
1.0327 27 Nov 2015 high 1.0144 Session low
1.0307 2 Dec  2015 high 1.0100 100 HMA
1.0255 29 Jan high 1.0060 18 Nov low
1.0223 2 Feb high 1.0030  (23.6% of 0.9548/1.0091)
1.0193/91 3 Feb high/Session high 1.0000 Minor

Bias                                                                                                                                16 Nov

US$Chf has been mostly rangebound on Thursday (1.0144/1.0191) although it did briefly make a new trend high in meeting the Feb high at 1.0191.

The daily momentum indicators still look constructive and hint that we could see a sterner test of 1.0200 and possibly to 1.0250 at some stage. The shorter term the 4 hour charts suggest that we may need further near term consolidation and they are beginning to show a degree of bearish divergence so come caution is warranted today. If we do see a dip, then back below the session low of 1.0145 could see a move back to 1.0100. With the weekly charts seemingly picking up steam, we could be in for something much bigger going into 2017, with 1.0325 (Nov 2105 high) now coming into view, above which could see a run towards 1.0700 and feasibly to 1.1380 ((38.2% of 1.8309/0.7080). That is a long way off, and in the meantime, on the downside, support will be seen at 1.0100/20 and then at 1.0030 and at 1.0000. Buying dips remains preferred.

24 Hour: Bearish divergence – Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Bullish
Meta Trader
USDCHF: 4 Hour

chf


AUDUSD: 0.7407
Resistance Support
0.7488 (38.2% of 7777/0.7310) 0.7380 100 HMA
0.7460 Minor 0.7363/61 Session low/22 Nov low
0.7444 23 Nov high 0.7335 Weekly cloud base
0.7435 200 HMA 0.7310 21 Nov low
0.7417 Session high 0.7288/84 (76.4% of 0.7144/0.7834)/16 June low

Bias                               

Having traded heavily through the first half of the session, the Aud recovered to trade up to a high of 0.7417 in thin US conditions before settling back at 0.7400.

The 4 hour momentum indicators look neutral, possibly slightly positive, so a cautious stance is required today, but the daily and weekly momentum indicators still point lower so further downside pressure would seem to be in store in the days ahead, where a break of the support at 0.7360 could then head towards 0.7335 and then to 0.7300/10. Under there should find decent buyers at 0.7285, but below which there is little support to be seen until 0.7217 and below that, at 0.7200, although that will be for another day. On the topside, 0.7410/20 will again provide intraday resistance ahead of the 0.7445/50 area.  Above there could see a run towards 0.7485/90, where I would be looking to sell the Aud, with a SL place above 0.7505. As a note of caution, note that the Iron Ore price is rallying strongly and is now at $US 75 per tonne and will likely help to underpin the $Aud, possibly slowing any downside momentum.

24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies. Medium Term:  Mildly bearish
Meta Trader
AUDUSD: 4 Hour

aud


NZDUSD: 0.7000
Resistance Support
0.7090 Minor 0.6980 Minor
0.7080/85  (23.6% of 0.7400/0.6983)/22 Nov high 0.6971 Session low
0.7055 200 HMA 0.6951 21 July low
0.7030 200 DMA /100 HMA 0.6933 (50% pivot of 0.7743/0.7485)
0.7010 Session high 0.6900 Minor

Bias

As with the Aud, having traded heavily through the first half of the session, the Kiwi recovered to trade up to a high of 0.7010, in thin US conditions, before settling at 0.7000.

The 4 hour momentum indicators still point lower a little and seem to be aligning themselves with the dailies and weeklies so the downside does seem to be the medium term focus. A break below 0.6970 would open the way to 0.6950 beneath which, decent bids should arrive at 0.6935. If we break 0.6890 there is nothing to hold it up until we reach 0.6830 although this seems unlikely to be seen for a while. On the topside, back above 0.7010, resistance will be seen at 0.7040, and above there at 0.7060 and at 0.7085, which if seen would seem to be a sell area with a SL placed above 0.7100

As with yesterday, some consolidation could be in order today although I still think the downside will eventually be the direction to concentrate on.

24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Mildly bearish

Economic data highlights will include:

NZ Trade Balance

Meta Trader
NZDUSD: 4 Hour

nzd