25 Oct: Higher yields underpin the US$. Australian CPI coming up. IFO & US Durable Goods later.

By | October 25, 2017

 

It has been a choppy session, with the Euro supported by some decent manufacturing PMIs (EU rose to 58.4, up from 58.1, beating expectation of 57.8; Germany dropped to 60.5, down from 60.6, but beat expectation of 60.0; France rose to 56.7, up from 56.1, beating expectation of 56.0), while the US$ was underpinned on hopes of passing Donald Trump’s tax plan before the end of the year and also by a decent Mfg PMI of its own (US Mfg Flash PMI Oct, 55.7, 54.8 prev). A report that John Taylor has support from a group of Republican Senators to be the next Federal Reserve chief also helped to underpin the dollar and offset a TV report that 3 Senators will not support the tax bill. It was all rather messy, with the end result being a weaker Chf, Gbp, Aud and Nzd, a rangebound Yen and a slightly firmer Euro. Elsewhere, the Dow has made yet new all time highs while the metals and WTI are rangebound, although WTI looks on the verge of an upside break. US 10 Year yields also underpinned the dollar and are potentially about to break higher after having closed right up against the important 2.4% resistance level (close @ 2.425%).

Wednesday will begin with the Australian inflation data (exp 0.8% mm, 2.0% yy, Trimmed Mean 0.5% mm, 2.0% yy) and after that it all goes quiet until the release of the German IFO Business Climate/Expectations and the Q3 UK Provisional  GDP (exp 0.3% qq, 1.4% yy). From the US we get the Sept Durable Goods Orders (exp 0.5% mm, Ex-transportation 0.5% mm), New Home Sales (exp 0.55 mio) and the EIA Crude Oil Stocks Weekly Change. There will also be a Interest Rate Decision from the Bank of Canada, where no change is expected.

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1762
Res  1.1775  1.1795  1.1815
Sup  1.1740  1.1725  1.1700
USDJPY: 113.92
Res  114.10  114.25  114.45
Sup  113.60  113.25  113.00
GBPUSD: 1.3134
Res  1.3155  1.3190  1.3225
Sup  1.3110  1.3090  1.3070
USDCHF: 0.9908
Res  0.9910  0.9940  0.9965
Sup  0.9880  0.9865  0.9840
AUDUSD: 0.7776
Res  0.7785  0.7800  0.7820
Sup  0.7770  0.7745  0.7730
NZDUSD: 0.6903
Res  0.6915  0.6930  0.6960
Sup  0.6885  0.6850  0.6815
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P: 2565
Res  2570  2575  2580
Sup  2560  2555  2550
DJI: 23390
Res  23435  23500  23550
Sup  23320  23270  23205
ASX SPI: 5896
Res  5905  5920  5940
Sup  5880  5865  5845
XAUUSD: 1277
Res  1280  1285  1290
Sup  1275  1270  1265
XAGUSD: 16.94
Res  17.15  17.30  17.45
Sup  16.85  16.75  16.55
WTI: 52.50
Res  52.55  52.85  53.70
Sup  52.00  51.50  50.80