25 Oct: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | October 25, 2019

The US$ looks mildly firmer on the charts heading into Friday trade and appears set to make headway against the EU majors and the commodity currencies although the Jpy seems fairly rangebound.

Elsewhere, things look rather mixed although Gold maybe building further upside momentum, while the ASX also looks healthy


*Trade of the day: October 25, 2019; 8:20 AM(AET)                         

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.

Sell EurUsd @ 1.1135. SL @ 1.1165, TP @ 1.1085

Buy EurUsd @ 1.1065. SL @ 1.1045, TP @ 1.1120

Sell AudUsd @ 0.6850. SL @ 0.6875, TP @ 0.6780

Buy AudUsd @ 0.6785. SL @ 0.6745, TP @ 0.6825

Sell NzdUsd @ 0.6410. SL @ 0.6440, TP @ 0.6340



EurUsd:  The Euro is lower on Friday after some briefly volatile price action following the ECB Meeting and it is currently sitting right on the 200 HMA at 1.1100. The short term momentum indicators look heavy, and below the 1.1092 Thursday low would open the way towards 1.1080 (minor) and to 1.1063 (38.2% of 1.0878/1.1179), below which would allow for a run to 1.1028 (50%) and to 1.1000/1.0992 (61.8%). On the topside, resistance will be seen at 1.1132 (100 DMA), at 1.1150 and then at the session, spike high at 1.1162. Further out, back above 1.1180, could then head towards the 61.8% of 1.1411/1.0878//200 DMA at 1.1203, which should see plenty of sellers if/when we get there but currently looks unlikely. A quiet session looks likely on Friday but the dollar looks mildly firmer so I prefer to sell rallies in the Euro, looking for a mild drift lower towards 1.1065/50.


US$Jpy:   has once again traded a very tight 24 point range on Thursday (108.48/74) leaving the outlook pretty much unchanged, with a neutral stance required. The short term momentum indicators are now flat and the daily charts look to be turning neutral, but we may yet see some upside progress towards 108.93 (trend high) and on to 109.05 (200 DMA), above which would then open the way to 109.30/35, which will be strong resistance if/when we get there (1 August high, 61.8% of 112.40/104.45). Further out, we may look towards 109.92 (30 May high) and, above 110.00, to 110.50 (76.4%). On the downside, back below 108.45/50, minor support will be seen at 108.25 (21 Oct low), below which would allow for a return to 108.15 (15 Oct low) and to 108.00 (38.2% of 106.48/108.93) and then to 107.87 (23.6% of 104.45/108.93), although this looks unlikely to be seen today. More distant Fibo levels are seen at 107.70 and 107.40 and for Friday I remain relatively neutral and suspect that 108.40/95 could well cover it once again. Further out, buying dips still seems to be the plan.


AudUsd:  The Aud$ failed to overcome the 100 DMA at 0.6855 in early Asian trade on Thursday, and since then it has drifted lower to currently sits just above the session low of 0.6810. With the short term momentum indicators looking heavy and the dailies appearing to be forming a top, further downside may see a sterner test of 0.6800 (38.2% of 0.6670/6879), below which would then look towards 0.6785 (minor),  0.6775 (50%) and then to 0.6750 (61.8%) and to 0.6720 (76.4%). On the topside, resistance will now be seen at 0.6735/40 and then again at 0.6755 (100 DMA).  If we break above here, doubtful, we could then  see another test of the Monday high at 0.6882, which is likely to remain strong resistance (0.6876/78 (50% of 0.7081/0.6770/Daily cloud top), but above which could then stretch to the 12 September high at 0.6894 and eventually to 0.6925 (61.8% of 0.7081/0.6770). Use 0.6780/55 as a guide for Friday.


NzdUsd: As with the Aud$, the Kiwi looks a little heavy today, and after falling to a low of 0.6375, and with the short term momentum indicators pointing lower, further weakness could now allow a run towards 0.6360/55 (38.2% of 0.6240/0.6435//200 HMA). Under here would then open the way to 0.6337 (50%) and to 0.6315 (61.8%) although this seems unlikely for today. On the topside, resistance will be seen at 0.6400 and then at the session high at 0.6425. Beyond here now looks unlikely, but once above 0.6435 (22 Oct high) the next target would be at the 12th  Sept high, at 0.6450, beyond which would then open the way to the 100 DMA at 0.6475. Look for 0.6410/0.6350 to cover it, with a preference to sell rallies.









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