26 Feb: Forecast: Commodities/Stock Indices + trade ideas

By | February 26, 2018

 

S&P: 2745
Preferred Strategy:  The S+P had another  good week and continued its recovery high in the wake of the recent  selloff, reaching 2745, closing at the week’s high.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher Daily Indicators: Turning higher Weekly Indicators:    Turning lower
Preferred Strategy:  The charts are mixed at the start of the week, with the dailies and weeklies pointing sharply in opposite directions (S+P, dailies; up/weeklies; down), so a cautious stance is required. The short term momentum indicators are looking better bid so a test of 2755/65 could be on the cards, above which could see an acceleration towards 2780. Buying dips, with a SL placed under Friday’s low is favoured.
Resistance Support
2780 Minor 2730 Minor
2770 Minor 2720 Minor
2762 5 Feb high 2710 Friday low
2754 16 Feb high 2700 (23.6% of 2530/2754)
2745/49 (61.8% of 2878/2530) /Friday high 2682 22 Feb  low


DJI: 25298
Ditto S+P.   The DJI also had a solid week and made another recovery high in the wake of the recent selloff, reaching 25323 on Friday from a low of 24999, before giving back a little of the day’s gains to finish the week at 25300
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher Daily Indicators: Turning higher Weekly Indicators:   Turning lower
Preferred Strategy:  The DJI, in line with the S+P also looks better bid for now, so buying dips, looking to take out 25500 seems to be the plan. Above here could see a run up towards 25800 although that is still a long way off. Keep stops below 25000.
Resistance Support
25600 Minor 25100 Minor
25500 Minor 24995 Friday low
25421 16 Feb high 24900 Minor
25323 Friday high 24756 22 Feb  low
25290 61.8% of 26662/23058 24700 Minor


ASX SPI: 5999
The ASX SPI continued higher on Friday, closing at 6000 and looking as though it wants to push on, possibly to the Feb high of 6071 over the next couple of days.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher Daily Indicators: Up Weekly Indicators:  Turning lower
Preferred Strategy:  As with the US indices, the daily/weekly charts are giving conflicting outlooks so a cautious stance is required.  The 1 and 4 hour charts are pointing higher though, so the Monday preference is to trade from the long side, looking to buy dips, with a SL place below 5935. Immediate targets are at 6030/6050 but looking for a target at the 2 Feb high at 6070.
Resistance Support
6100 Minor 5970 Minor
6071 2 Feb high 5950 Minor
6050 Minor 5940/35 100 DMA/Friday low
6030 Minor 5891 22 Feb  low
6000 Friday high 5875 200 HMA


XAUUSD: 1329
Gold remains heavy at the start of the week with direction likely to come via the direction of the dollar although Monday appears set to be choppy, with little directional movement, and a range of 1320/35 would seem to have it covered.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher Daily Indicators: Turning lower Weekly Indicators:  Neutral
Preferred Strategy:   Decent support lies at 1320 so I don’t think we are going under here today, but if wrong, look for a move back to 1305/10. On the topside, resistance will be seen at 1332/37, above which could see a squeeze towards 1350.
Resistance Support
1361 16 Feb high 1326 Friday low
1350 Minor 1320 22 Feb  low
1337 200 HMA 1316 14 Feb low
1332 22 Feb  high 1311 9 Feb low
1326 Friday high 1307 8 Feb low


XAGUSD: 16.52
Silver is pretty choppy right now and best left alone
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Neutral Daily Indicators: Neutral Weekly Indicators:  Neutral
Preferred Strategy:   The momentum indicators are all pretty flat and while Silver sits close to the major long term Moving Averages, further choppy sideways trade seems likely.
Resistance Support
17.35 100 WMA 16.50 Friday low
17.00/16.94 200 WMA/55WMA – 16 Feb high 16.40 22 Feb  low
16.85 100 DMA/200 DMA 16.18 9 Feb low
16.77 21 Feb high 16.00 200 MMA
16.63 Friday high 15.80 Minor


WTI: 63.55
WTI had another good session on Friday, in rising to finish at 63.55, just below the week’s high, underpinned by  a drop in Libyan production as well as some upbeat comments from Saudi’s oil minister, offsetting  data showing that the number of US oil rigs increased for the fifth-straight week.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher Daily Indicators: Turning higher Weekly Indicators:  Turning lower?
Preferred Strategy:   While the weeklies still look slightly heavy, both the 4 hour/daily momentum indicators are quite constructive at the start of the week and hint at the chance of a run back towards 64.00/65.00, above which would allow for a move back to the 66.63 trend high (25 Jan). On the downside, support will be seen at 62.00/40 and then again at 61.50. Right now buying dips below 63.00 with a SL sub 62.00 seems to be the plan.
Resistance Support
65.38 5 Feb high 63.00 Minor
65.00 Minor 62.40 (23.6% of 58.05/63.71)
64.60 (76.4% pivot of 66.63/58.05) 62.00 100 HMA
64.27 6 Feb high 61.55 (38.2% of 58.05/63.71)
63.71 Friday high 60.85 (50% of 58.05/63.71)