26 Feb: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | February 26, 2019

While the “risk-on” theme continues to run through markets ahead of any announcement on a trade deal between the US/China, I am wondering if this is all a buy the rumour-sell the fact type scenario, so I remain very cautious of buying risk assets at these levels.

In the meantime stocks, the commodity bloc currencies remain positive but look rather mixed on the charts, although both the Aud and the Kiwi do seem set to remain underpinned, while US$Jpy has also taken a turn higher, so buying either AudJpy or NzdJpy may be a plan. Note that US$Jpy will face heavy resistance nearby – at 111.33 (200 DMA) and at 111.48 (100 DMA).

The EU majors are rangebound, albeit that the Euro looks mildly positive today, but any real directional bias today will come on the back of Fed Chair Powell’s testimony to Congress.

Note that USDCNY still looks heavy and is breaking below important Fibo support, with the next target being at around 6.61.

In other markets, US stocks do seem underpinned but may be a bit toppish on the dailies, while the ASX seems rather unimpressed with the current rally going on elsewhere, and may be turning lower.

The main mover today was WTI which fell sharply on the back of Donald Trump’s tweet. With the market caught long, further downside momentum may be in order today and I suspect some choppy trade may lie ahead. Looking to buy near 54.00/50 with a SL near 53.00 may be a plan.

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*Trade of the day: February 26, 2019; 10:40 AM(AET)                       

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.

Range Trade: EurUsd: 1.1300/1.1400 (SL 30 pips either side)

Range Trade: AudUsd @ 0.7200/0.7100. (SL 30 pips either side)

Sell Gold @ 1337. SL @ 1352, TP @ 1300

Buy WTI @ 54.25. SL @ 52.90, TP @ 56.00

Sell ASX @ 6140. SL @ 6170, TP @ 6070