26 July: Forecast: Stock Indices, Commodities

By | July 26, 2017


S&P: 2475
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred Strategy: Neutral

Another day another all-time high.

With the daily momentum indicators still pointing higher, further gains would seem possible in the days ahead although the short term charts are looking a little mixed on Wednesday so some caution is warranted and progress, if any, may be slow. A rangebound session would not surprise.

As before, I prefer to remain sidelined at these levels.

Resistance Support
2495 Minor 2466 Session low
2490 Minor 2457 19 July low
2485 Minor 2447 18 July low
2480 Minor 2444 (23.6% of 2345/2475)
2478 25 July high -All-time high 2425 (38.2% of 2345/2475

DJI: 21563
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred Strategy: Neutral

Ditto S+P. Sidelined.

Resistance Support
21750 Minor 21483 Session low
21700 Minor 21415 18 July low
21650 Minor 21350 (23.6% of 20474/21626)
21636 25 July high – all-time high 21250 Minor
21600 24 July high 21185 (38.2% of 20474/21626)

ASX SPI: 5703
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred Strategy: xxxx

The SPI is now back in the middle of its prolonged, choppy range and is best left alone.

The charts still look pretty neutral so I would not be too involved although we have now had 5 false downside breaks of the 200 DMA and this could be a hint that we need to take a look at the topside to see what lies above the 100 DMA resistance, currently at 5765.

Resistance Support
5765 100 DMA 5685 Minor
5747 4 July high 5668 200 HMA
5729 14 July high 5635/40 Session low/200 DMA
5717 20 July high 5620 Minor
5702 Session high 5593 (38.2% of 5029/5944)

XAUUSD: 1250
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred Strategy: Neutral

Gold is under a little pressure today, not helped by the slightly stronger dollar, and will now take its direction from the outcome of the FOMC.

As before, the daily momentum indicators still point higher although they may be about to flatten out.  If we do head higher, then above the initial resistance at 1257/58, good resistance should be seen at 1260/65, but a break of which could then see a run towards 1275.

Such a move to the topside would depend on further dollar weakness although that looks a little unlikely right now and a continuation of the current dollar strength could take us below the 1249 session low to where further support would be seen at 1240/45 and then again at 1230/35, which should be strong.

Resistance Support
1275 (76.4% of 1295/1208) 1249 Session low
1270 Minor 1243 21 July low
1265 Descending trend resistance 1235 19 July low /20 July low
1261 (61.8% of 1295/1208) 1230 200 DMA /200 WMA
1258 24 July high 1225 Neckline

XAGUSD: 16.48
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Prefer to buy dips
Preferred Strategy: Neutral

Silver has been volatile but has finished more or less unchanged at 16.50 after earlier making a new trend high of 16.68 following a bounce from the day’s low of 16.25.

With the dailies pointing higher, if the session high  at 16.68 can be taken out we could be in for a run towards 16.75 and possibly back towards 16.90/17.05 although not yet I suspect, and much will depend on the dollar.

The short term momentum indicators look a little less constructive, and on the downside back below the spike low of 16.25 would find bids at 16.05/15, and then below 16.00 at 15.85/95.

Resistance Support
17.08 15 June high 16.45 Rising trend support
16.90 (50% of 18.65/15.18)/29 June high 16.25 Session low
16.75 (61.8% pivot of 16.75/15.18) 16.13 20 July low
16.68 Session high 16.10 (38.2% of 15.18/16.68)
16.55 Minor 15.96 17 July low

WTI: 48.52
24 Hour: Neutral.  Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred Strategy: Prefer to buy dips towards 47.50, with a SL placed under 47.00.

WTI has rocketed higher late in the day, after earlier being underpinned by the news of the Saudi export cuts, when the weekly API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory showed a surprise drawdown of 10.23 million barrels.

The momentum indicators are now aligned higher and a move towards the 200 DMA/Descending trend resistance at 49.40 would seem to lie ahead. Above here could then see a move to 50.00 and potentially higher.

On the downside, support now lies at the 100 DMA, below which could see a run back towards 47.00/10 although that now looks rather distant.

Resistance Support
51.00 Minor 47.95 100 DMA
50.20 (61.8% of 55.21/42.03) 47.10 (23.6% of 42.02/48.64)
50.00 Psychological 46.36 Session low
49.40 Descending trend resistance/200 DMA 45.38 24 July low
48.60/64 (50% pivot of 55.21/42.03) 44.96 13 July low