26 Mar: Stocks hit hard again, US$ mixed/lower as trade war fears dominate. Thin calendar ahead of Easter weekend..

By | March 26, 2018

 

It was all about the stock markets again on Friday as Wall Street tumbled, with traders increasingly nervous about a potential trade war between the US and China, sending the S+P and the DJI down by 2%. In terms of data, almost unnoticed amidst the action going on elsewhere, the US durable goods orders rose 3.1% in February, above expectation of 1.7%, while the ex-transport orders rose 1.2% versus expectation of 0.5%. Unfortunately the good numbers did nothing to help bond yields which finished lower (US 10Y – 2.817%) or the dollar. The currency markets were choppy but largely on the sidelines given the move in the stock-markets, with the US$ ending mixed, but mostly weaker on the day, particularly against the Yen, which looks set for further gains on all fronts this week if the current sour risk sentiment continues to dominate trade. The dollar index (DXY) was down 0.48%, at 89.427 on the day and down 0.9% for the week.  Elsewhere, Gold was in demand as safe haven buying set in due to the trade war concerns, rising $20 oz on Friday, while WTI settled at a 2 month high, as the prospect of an extension to OPEC-led production cuts into 2019 overshadowed data showing the number of US oil rigs rose to 804, a three-year high.

This will be a shortened week’s due to Easter although there will be some key data released. The focus will be on the Q4 US GDP (Wed) and the US Personal Consumption/Expenditure (Thur) but also due will plenty of secondary data, with the main interest being on the Preliminary March German CPI (Thur). Asia will be more or less empty. Have a good long w/e.

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.2353
Res  1.2370  1.2390  1.2410
Sup  1.2325  1.2300  1.2285
USDJPY: 104.73
Res  105.00  105.30  105.55
Sup  104.65  104.30  104.00
GBPUSD: 1.4133
Res  1.4150  1.4180  1.4220
Sup  1.4100  1.4075  1.4020
USDCHF: 0.9472
Res  0.9495  0.9515  0.9535
Sup  0.9445  0.9425  0.9400
AUDUSD: 0.7695
Res  0.7725  0.7710  0.7745
Sup  0.7685  0.7670  0.7645
NZDUSD: 0.7236
Res  0.7250  0.7270  0.7285
Sup  0.7225  0.7200  0.7185
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P: 2596
Res  2615  2640  2660
Sup  2585  2555  2530
DJI: 23581
Res  23700  23935  24100
Sup  23480  23320  23055
ASX SPI: 5747
Res  5760  5780  5805
Sup  5715  5745  5690
XAUUSD: 1347
Res  1350  1360  1365
Sup  1340  1335  1330
XAGUSD: 16.55
Res  16.65  16.75  16.85
Sup  16.45  16.35  16.25
WTI: 65.72
Res  65.95  66.65  67.35
Sup  65.20  64.50  64.10