26 Sept: US Consumer Confidence at 18 year high. Now, all on hold waiting for today’s FOMC outcome. NZ T/B coming up.

By | September 26, 2018

 

Markets have traded sideways ahead of today’s FOMC Meeting at which a rate hike is fully priced in. Stocks, FX and commodities have all been stuck within familiar ranges and this seems likely to remain the case until the Fed meeting. Bond markets have also been steady.

In terms of data, US consumer confidence surged to an 18-year high in September, 138.4 from an upwardly revised 134.7 in August, with households growing more upbeat about the strength of the labour market and pointing to sustained strength in the economy, despite the ongoing trade dispute between the United States and China. The Richmond Fed Mfg Index came in well above expectations, at 29 (vs. expectations of 22), while the House Price Index came in, in line with consensus, at 0.2% for August.

Things warm up on Wednesday, beginning with the NZ August Trade Balance, but with the main event of the week coming during the US session, with the FOMC Meeting, at which – as I said – a hike is fully priced in, but the market will be playing closer attention to Jerome Powell’s statement and his take on the likelihood of a December hike and also the realignment of the Donald Trump plot, which will ultimately define the direction of the markets over the next few sessions. A couple of hours on from the Fed, early Thursday, the RBNZ Interest Rate Decision will be delivered with no change expected – and the focus, once again, will be on the Press Conference

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1766
Res  1.1790  1.1815  1.1850
Sup  1.1750  1.1720  1.1685
USDJPY: 112.94
Res  113.00  113.40  113.20
Sup  112.75  112.60  112.40
GBPUSD: 1.3179
Res  1.3215  1.3255  1.3300
Sup  1.3145  1.3095  1.3055
USDCHF: 0.9650
Res  0.9670  0.9700  0.9730
Sup  0.9620  0.9575  0.9540
AUDUSD: 0.7251
Res  0.7265  0.7280  0.7305
Sup  0.7235  0.7220  0.7200
NZDUSD: 0.6647
Res  0.6670  0.6700  0.6725
Sup  0.6625  0.6600  0.6570
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P.fs: 2920
Res  2935  2945  2955
Sup  2910  2900  2890
DJ30.fs: 26521
Res  26570  26645  26700
Sup  26495  26445  26375
SPI200.fs: 6184
Res  6200  6210  6220
Sup  6165  6150  6135
XAUUSD: 1201
Res  1205  1210  1215
Sup  1195  1190  1185
XAGUSD: 14.46
Res  14.55  14.70  14.85
Sup  14.30  14.15  13.95
WTI.fs: 72.26
Res  72.75  73.45  74.00
Sup  71.75  71.20  70.40