26 Sept: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | September 26, 2019

The US$ is back in favour today and does appear to have further upside potential.

The Aud$ looks very heavy as we approach the RBA Meeting on Tuesday.

Keep an eye on the possible head/shoulder formation in Gold, which has plenty of downside potential if it ever breaks 1485.


*Trade of the day: September 26, 2019; 7:59 AM(AET)                 

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.

Sell EurUsd @ 1.0980. SL @ 1.1010, TP @ 1.0905

Buy EurUsd @ 1.0880. SL @ 1.0840, TP @ 1.0950

Sell AudUsd @ 0.6785. SL @ 0.6815, TP @ 0.6705

I am currently travelling, so today’s update is much abbreviated. Normal service resumes Monday.


EurUsd:  The Euro has traded lower on Wednesday in falling to a low of 1.0937 but holding on above the previous 1.0925 double bottom. If we do head below 1.0925 this would then open the way to 1.0900 and to 1.0860 (76.4% of 1.0340/1.2555), and further out there is a weekly chart gap that would take us to 1.0772. On the topside, the session high was at 1.1022, where we now have decent resistance although the Euro may struggle to get back there today. Ahead of that, sellers will arrive at 1.0965 – previous support, now resistance – and then at 1.0980 and at 1.1000. Beyond 1.1025, if/when we get there, look for a run towards 1.1040/50 and then possibly to the September 18/19 highs at 1.1072/75. Beyond that further resistance would arrive at 1.1100/10 (38.2% of 1.1411/1.0925/), above which would then target 1.1125(61.8% of 1. 1249/1.0925) and the 26 August high of 1.1163. Further out, resistance then lies at 1.1170/75(76.4% of 1. 1249/1.0925/100 DMA) and then at 1.1245 (200 DMA) although that remains some way off. I would be surprised if we go below 1.0900 today and a range trade of 1.0915/1.1000 may well cover it.

AudUsd:  The Aud$ is heavy again on Thursday as the market prepares for an RBA rate cut next week and looks as though it could make further tests of downside support below the session low of 0.6739. If we do break lower, look for buyers at the Fibo level at 0.6735(76.4%). Further out, I still suspect that we may see a return to 0.6700/10 as an RBA rate cut looms, possibly on Tuesday, below which would open the way back to 0.6688, where we have a minor double bottom( 3 Sept/26 August lows) and which comes ahead of 0.6675 (7 Aug low). Below 0.6675, there is minor support at 0.6660, but under there would open the way to 0.6500 and, further out, the next major Fibo level is not seen until 0.6250 (76.4% of 0.4773 (April 2001)/1.1082 (July 2011)). On the topside sellers will be seen at 0.6765/75 and then at 0.6790/00 ahead of 0.6803/10 (Session high/Friday high) ahead of 0.6825 (minor) and then at 0.6835 61.8% of 0.6894/0.6739. Beyond there would allow a run towards 0.6850 and possibly to 0.6880 and even to the 12 Sept high of 0.6891 although ahead of next week’s RBA Meeting, when a rate cut is now widely expected I don’t think we get close to those levels.


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