27 July: Forecast: Stock Indices, Commodities

By | July 27, 2017


S&P: 2474
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Another day another all-time high (2479)

As before, with the daily momentum indicators still pointing higher, further gains would seem possible in the days ahead although the short term charts are looking a little mixed on Thursday so some caution is warranted and progress, if any, may be slow. A rangebound session would not surprise.

As before, I prefer to remain sidelined at these levels.

Preferred Strategy: Neutral

Resistance Support
2495 Minor 2471 Session low
2490 Minor 2466 25 July low
2485 Minor 2457 19 July low
2480 Minor 2447 18 July low/(23.6% of 2345/2475)
2479 26 July high -All-time high 2435 Minor

DJI: 21637
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Ditto S+P. Sidelined. (21546/21686)

Preferred Strategy: Neutral

Resistance Support
21850 Minor 21483 25 July low
21800 Minor 21415 18 July low
21750 Minor 21350 (23.6% of 20474/21626)
21700 Minor 21250 Minor
21686 26 July high – all-time high 21185 (38.2% of 20474/21626)

ASX SPI: 5718
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
The SPI has headed a little higher in what has been a relatively tight session (5712/37), and now back in the middle of its prolonged, choppy range, it is best left alone.

As we said yesterday, the charts still look pretty neutral so I would not be too involved although we have now had 5 false downside breaks of the 200 DMA and this could be a hint that we need to take a look at the topside to see what lies above the 100 DMA resistance, currently at 5765.

Preferred Strategy: Neutral

Resistance Support
5808 23 May high 5712 Session low
5793 14 June high 5690 Minor
5765 100 DMA 5675 200 HMA
5747 4 July high 5635/40 25 July low/200 DMA
5737 Session high 5620 Minor

XAUUSD: 1260

Having looked heavy ahead of the FOMC, Gold then shot up following the release of the statement, leaping to a high of 1263 from an earlier session low of 1243.

As before, the daily momentum indicators point higher and if the Fibo resistance at 1261 can be overcome could then see a run towards 1275/80 which should see good selling interest.

On the downside, support now lies at 1250 (minor) ahead of the stronger level at 1240/45 and then again at 1230/35, which should be strong although looking increasingly distant.

Preferred Strategy: Looking to buy at around 1250, with a SL placed under 1240 would seem to be the plan, looking for a run towards 1270/80

XAGUSD: 16.63
24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Prefer to buy dips
Silver has been choppy, but at the end of the day it is back at the previous day’s highs after rising sharply from a low of 16.30.

With the dailies pointing higher, if 16.70/75 can be taken out we could be in for a run towards 16.90/17.05 although not yet I suspect, and much will depend on the dollar.

The short term momentum indicators look a little less constructive, and on the downside the initial, minor support arrives at 16.45. Back below 16.30 would find bids at 16.05/15, and then below 16.00 at 15.85/95.

Preferred Strategy: Prefer to buy dips at around 16.45 with a SL placed under 16.25. Looking for a run towards 16.90.

Resistance Support
17.20 Minor 16.45 100 HMA
17.08 15 June high 16.30 Session low
16.90 (50% of 18.65/15.18)/29 June high 16.25 25 July low
16.75 (61.8% pivot of 16.75/15.18) 16.10 (38.2% of 15.18/16.68)
16.68/69 25 July high/Session high 15.96 17 July low

WTI: 48.69
24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Prefer to buy dips
WTI has consolidated the gains of the previous session which had seen a late run higher following the unexpectedly large drawdown in the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory.

The momentum indicators are now aligned higher and once above the session high of 48.84, a move towards the 200 DMA/descending trend resistance at 49.40 would seem to lie ahead. Above here could then see a move to 50.00 and potentially higher.

On the downside, support now lies at the 100 DMA, below which could see a run back towards 47.00/10 although that now looks rather distant.

Preferred Strategy: I prefer to buy dips towards the 100 DMA (47.85), with a SL placed below 47.25, but looking for a run towards 49.00/50.

Resistance Support
51.00 Minor 47.85 Session low /100 DMA
50.20 (61.8% of 55.21/42.03) 47.25 (23.6% of 42.02/48.84)
50.00 Psychological 46.36 25 July low
49.40 Descending trend resistance/200 DMA 45.38 24 July low
48.84 Session high 44.96 13 July low