Markets were choppy but generally rangebound on Friday despite the failure to make any progress on Donald Trump’s healthcare bill. In terms of data, the US durable goods orders jumped 1.7% in February versus expectation of 1.2% while the Euro was underpinned by some solid PMI data. The EU PMI manufacturing rose to 56.2 in March, up from 55.4 and beat expectation of 55.3, while the EU PMI services rose to 56.5, up from 55.5, also beating expectations of 55.3. The PMI composite rose to 56.7, hitting the highest level in six years, since April 2011. The German PMI manufacturing rose to 58.3, up from 56.8, beat expectation of 56.5. German PMI services rose to 55.6, up from 54.4 and beat expectation of 54.5.
The coming week will be another busy one, particularly with Fed speakers who will be active almost every day in providing conflicting views as to when we should expect the next US rate hike. The other main event will be the triggering of Article 50 for the UK to formalise the Brexit negotiations, which could mean a wild week for Cable. Elsewhere, Monday will look to the German IFO Business Climate/Expectations for inspiration along with assorted central bank speakers. Tuesday and Wednesdays will both be busy, with a fair bit of secondary US data and more Fed speakers. The highlights on Thursday will include the German CPI and the Q4 US GDP, while Friday will include the China Mfg/Non-Mfg PMIs, the UK Q4 GDP and the US Personal Income/Spending for March, the Chicago Purchasing Managers index and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
EURUSD: Rangebound ahead of the IFO and several EU/US central bank speakers today
USDJPY: Rangebound, but looking heavy above last week’s trend lows
GBPUSD: Rangebound. Article 50 coming up on Wednesday
AUDUSD: Heavy. China Manufacturing PMIs this week
US STOCKS: Recovered early losses as the US Healthcare Bill failed to pass through Congress
ASX SPI: The ASX had a solid range on Friday but overall looks set to start the week in choppy fashion below the 2 year highs seen last Monday.
METALS: Gold steady; Silver a little higher
OIL (WTI): Choppy above trend lows
The levels in this table are a guide only. For more in depth analysis please go the “Articles” tab at the top of the page and scroll down.
|INDICES / COMMODITIES|
|ASX SPI: 5735|
|OIL (WTI): 48.11|