27 Nov: Choppy conditions as risk sentiment fluctuates. Thin calendar, Tuesday, but plenty of CB speakers.

By | November 27, 2018

 

The FX markets have had a choppy session, initially picking up some positive momentum as risk sentiment improved on news that Italy is showing some flexibility to adjust its 2019 budget deficit target, allowing the Euro to head higher and dragging the commodity bloc currencies with it. Things turned a little sour though after ECB President Mario Draghi acknowledged slowing growth in the EU, sending most currency pairs back to where they had started the day.

The only major mover has been the Jpy, which is weaker on the back of firm stock markets, which retained their gains through the session to close up by about 1.5% on hopes of good figures from on-line retailers after last week’s Black-Friday session. Cable is doing nothing; with traders generally sidelined wile Brexit sorts itself out, one way or the other, with the UK parliamentary vote being set for December 11.

Elsewhere, WTI had a bounce, +2.2%, and looks firm in the short term; albeit that the longer term charts still suggest lower levels ahead at some stage. The metals are unchanged.

Looking ahead, Tuesday will be pretty much bereft of data to move the markets and it will be political headlines that dominate the price action. The Asian session will kick off with the NZ Trade Balance, with nothing to follow until the German Import/Export Index and then the US Case Shiller House Price Index and September Housing Starts. Speeches are due in the European time zone from the FOMC Member, Clarida and from the ECB’s Mersch and then in US time, from the Fed’s Bostic, Evans and George. All eyes will be on tomorrow, when the Preliminary Q2 GDP figures are due and the Fed Chair, Powell, will be speaking. Have a good day.

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1332
Res  1.1360  1.1380  1.1400
Sup  1.1320  1.1300  1.1280
USDJPY: 113.59
Res  113.70  114.00  114.20
Sup  113.40  113.15  112.90
GBPUSD: 1.2816
Res  1.2850  1.2885  1.2925
Sup  1.2765  1.2725  1.2690
USDCHF: 0.9987
Res  1.0000  1.0025  1.0050
Sup  0.9955  0.9925  0.9900
AUDUSD: 0.7227
Res  0.7250  0.7275  0.7300
Sup  0.7205  0.7180  0.7155
NZDUSD: 0.6784
Res  0.6795  0.6820  0.6840
Sup  0.6765  0.6745  0.6725
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P.fs: 2669
Res  2675  2690  2705
Sup  2660  2650  2640
DJ30.fs: 24595
Res  24680  24835  25030
Sup  24500  24360  24235
SPI200.fs: 5719
Res  5740  5775  5815
Sup  5690  5655  5620
XAUUSD: 1222
Res  1230  1235  1240
Sup  1220  1215  1210
XAGUSD: 14.26
Res  14.40  14.55  14.65
Sup  14.15  14.00  13.90
WTI.fs: 51.78
Res  52.70  53.70  54.70
Sup  50.85  50.00  49.15