27 Nov: Forecast: Stocks/ Commodities.

By | November 27, 2017


S&P: 2601
Preferred Strategy: The S+P traded to new all-time high on Friday, reaching 2602 and closing above 2600 for the first time.

Trying to pick the top in US stocks is a fruitless exercise and until we see some confirmation of a reversal I prefer not to be involved at these lofty levels.  At this stage there is little sign of a significant turnaround to the longer term uptrend despite the toppish look of the indicators so I am staying out.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
2620 Minor 2589 23 Nov low
2615 Minor 2575 Minor
2610 Minor 2567 20 Nov low
2605 Minor 2562 16 Nov low
2602 Friday high  – all-time high 2558 (23.6% of 2421/2602)

DJI: 23516
Preferred Strategy: Ditto S+P.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
23700 Minor 23476 Friday low
23650 Minor 23400 Minor
23600 Minor 23374 22 Nov low
23583 22 Nov high  – all-time high 23239 20 Nov low
23568 Friday high 23198 25 Oct low

ASX SPI: 5996
Preferred Strategy: The ASX SPI200 had a choppy session on Friday, but closed near its highs, just under 6000 and a fairly steady session would seem to be in store for Monday.

The 4 hour indicators are now pretty neutral and minor resistance at Friday’s high of 6006 may cap it today although a break of this could allow the chance of a squeeze up to the recent highs of 6025 and 6046, which would see decent sellers.

The dailies are pointing increasingly lower though, and I suspect that in the next few days we could see a return to Friday’s low of 5960. Below 5950 would then see the chance of a move back to the 5927, 16 Nov low. Below that would extend to 5900 and on to 5880, albeit not today.

In the longer term, the weeklies still point higher and If we do carry on above the recent  6025 and 6046 highs, there seems to be little to stop the SPI reaching 6102, which would close a major chart gap from Dec 2007

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies
Resistance Support
6070 Minor 5960 Friday low
6050 Minor 5953 22 Nov low
6043/46 13 Nov high/9 Nov high 5929/27 20 Nov low/16 Nov low
6025 22 Nov high 5907 2 Nov low
6006 Friday high 5885 (38.2% of 5626/6046)

XAUUSD: 1288
Preferred Strategy: Gold was choppy on Friday, unable to take advantage of the dollar’s weakness, and remains stuck at close to 1290. Further dollar selling though would see Gold head higher and a break of the recent high of 1297 would then allow for 1300+, beyond which further gains towards 1310/15 would not surprise,  above which would look towards 1320.

If we see the dollar regain its recent losses and risk sentiment improves over the coming week, we could then see a move out of risk assets and a return to 1275, where strong support lies but below which would open up the chance of a move to 1260 and then to 1250, where the rising trend support will provide decent support.

24 Hour: Mildly Bullish – Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
1313 26 Sept high 1285 Friday low
1309 (50% of 1357/1261) 1276/74 100 DMA /22 Nov low/ 20 Nov low
1300 Minor 1266 6 Nov low
1296 17 Oct high/Daily cloud base /17 Nov high 1261 6 Oct low/(61.8% of 1205/1358)/200 DMA
1293 Friday high 1258 Rising trend support

XAGUSD: 17.03
Preferred Strategy: Silver remains super-glued to +/- 17.00, and this seems likely to continue today.

The dailies are still rather neutral too, so I would not be getting too excited here given the confluence of the major moving averages at current levels which may act as a medium term magnate, but further gains, above 17.15/20, could then see a run towards 17.45 and even to 17.75.

On the downside, support will be seen at 16.90/85 and then at 16.75 below which would return to 16.60 but right now this seems unlikely.

24 Hour: Neutral  – Mildly Bullish Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
17.75 (76.4% of 18.21/16.33) 16.96 Friday low
17.46/50 16 Oct high/(61.8% of 18.21/16.33) 16.90 100 WMA  /22 Nov low
17.38 17 Nov high 16.85 20 Nov low
17.20/15 200 WMA/200 DMA 16.80/78 10 Nov low/6 Nov low/3 Nov low
17.15 Friday high 16.60 27 Oct low

WTI: 58.94
Preferred Strategy:  WTI continued its march higher ahead of the November 30 OPEC meeting, when an extension to the exiting production cuts will be discussed, and on Friday it briefly broke through the 200 WMA to reach 59.02, before closing right on the resistance.

With the momentum indicators generally looking positive we could see further gains in the days ahead although the shorter term charts do hint at some bearish divergence so we may see better levels to buy into.

If so, on the downside, support will be seen at around 58.00/30 and then again at 57.75 and at 57.00 and looking for somewhere in there to buy it seems to be the plan.

A sustained break of the strong resistance seen at the 200 WMA could see a quick run to 60.00 and higher, with little to stop it heading to 61.80/62.50. Beyond there, there is nothing to stop it heading to 66.00 and I am beginning to think we are on our way to 75.00! Wait for the OPEC Meeting to find out!

Buy WTI @ 58.50. SL @ 57.50, TP @ 61.00

24 Hour: Mildly Bullish – Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Cautiously Bullish
Resistance Support
62.55 May 2015 high 58.33 Friday low
61.80 June 2015 high 57.73 23 Nov low
60.00 Minor 56.30 22 Nov low
59.02 Friday high 55.72 20 Nov low
58.90 200 WMA 54.91 16 Nov low