27 Sept: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors + Trade Ideas

By | September 27, 2017

 

EURUSD: 1.1791
Preferred Strategy: I prefer to remain short, given the bearish look of the daily charts. However the short term momentum indicators do point to the chance of a minor recovery, so look to sell any short term rally back above 1.1800. Note that we could see a return to the neckline of the H/S formation so SL should be placed above here (1.1850). Sell EurUsd @ 1.1835. SL @ 1.1870, TP @ 1.1680.
24 Hour: Bearish Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies
Resistance Support
1.1935 25 Sept high 1.1756 Session low
1.1900 Minor 1.1730 (23.6% of 1.0570/1.2091)
1.1860 Session high 1.1720 (38.2% of 1.1118/1.2091)
1.1830 Minor 1.1685 Minor
1.1810 Minor 1.1661 17 Aug low

Economic data highlights will include:

W: US Durable Goods, Pending Home Sales, EIA weekly crude oil stock change, US Tax Plan Announcement



USDJPY: 112.23
Preferred Strategy: The charts look slightly more positive today although I remain cautious of buying this pair due to the sensitivity of the Yen to N Korean politics. Stay square for now or look to trade the range 111.80/113.00 with a 30 point SL on each side. Note that the long term descending trend resistance is at 112.85. A sustained break above 112.85/113.00 could see a quick move higher. Today’s tax announcement could be a catalyst but until then, trade the range.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Mildly Bullish
Resistance Support
112.85 Descending trend resistance 112.10 200 DMA
112.78 (76.4% of 114.49/107.32) 111.80 Minor
112.71 21 Sept  high 111.52 Daily cloud top
112.52/54 25 Sept high/22 Sept high 111.46 25 Sept low /Session Low
112.47 Session high 111.35 Weekly cloud top


GBPUSD: 1.3460
Preferred Strategy: Cable was once again choppy, but with a slightly negative bias after an early European squeeze up to 1.3513.  Today’s UK GDP may provide some direction, but overall, as with yesterday, look to trade the range of 1.3400/1.3500, with a 30 point SL on each side.

24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
1.3595 22 Sept high 1.3430 Minor
1.3570 25 Sept high 1.3408/05 Session low (23.6% of 1.2588/1.3656)/Rising trend support
1.3513 Session high 1.3375 Minor
1.3500 Minor 1.3350 Minor
1.3480 Minor 1.3320 (23.6% of 1.2588/1.3656)

Economic data highlights will include:

W: Q2 GDP, Current Account, CBI Industrial Trends Survey – Realised



USDCHF: 0.9687
Preferred Strategy: Neutral. Further choppy trade looks likely as lingering demand for the Chf follows on from the German election result.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
0.9772 8 Aug high/(38.2% of 1.0343/0.9420) 0.9652 Session low
0.9746 25 Sept high/21 Sept  high 0.9641 25 Sept low
0.9725 Session high 0.9622 (38.2% of 0.9420/0.9746)
0.9700 Minor 0.9600 Minor
0.9680 Minor 0.9587 20 Sept low


AUDUSD: 0.7886
Preferred Strategy: The Aud has seen a decent slide, reaching 0.7858 under pressure from the stronger US$. The short term momentum indicators suggest the current move may be a little overdone although the dailies remain bearish. Sell AudUsd @ 0.7910. SL @ 0.7960, TP @ 0.7815.
24 Hour: Neutral – Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Mildly Bearish
Resistance Support
0.7980 (50% pivot of 0.8102/0.7858) 0.7870 Minor
0.7950 (38.2% of 0.8102/0.7858) 0.7858 Session low
0.7935 Minor 0.7840 Minor
0.7915 (23.6% of 0.8102/0.7858) 0.7817 (38.2% of 0.7328/0.8113)
0.7900 Minor 0.7800 Minor


NZDUSD: 0.7211
Preferred Strategy: The Kiwi fell again on Tuesday, reaching 0.7167 ahead of a mild bounce. The dailies still look fairly neutral though so some caution is warranted but overall I still prefer to sell into strength. The short term momentum indicators do suggest the current move down may need a bit of a correction higher. Sell NzdUsd @ 0.7240. SL @ 0.7305, TP @ 0.7115.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
0.7285 100 HMA /200 HMA 0.7190 Minor
0.7268 (38.2% of 0.7434/0.7167) 0.7167 Session low
0.7250 Minor 0.7142/45 4 Sept low/200 DMA
0.7230 (23.6% of 0.7434/0.7167) 0.7131 31 Aug low
0.7215 Minor 0.7105 (61.8% of 0.6817/0.7558)