28 Feb: Forecast: Stocks, Commodities

By | February 28, 2017


S+P: 2368

Another day, another all time high on hopes of a major announcement to come tomorrow, from Donald Trump.

Technically, the dailies still point higher, so the ongoing drift to new all time highs could well continue this week as we head slowly towards 2400. On the downside, support will be seen at today’s session low of 2360, at 2334/50 below which further support lies at 2330/35 and then 2320. I would rather not be involved at these levels although the slow squeeze higher looks set to continue and buying dips seems to be the plan. The 1 and 4 hour charts are now flat. Stand aside.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
2400 Minor 2361 Session low
2390 Minor 2349 24 Feb low
2380 Minor 2345 20 Feb low
2375 Minor 2331 16 Feb low
2369 Session high  /All time high 2320 14 Feb low

DJI: 20817

Ditto S+P. Today traded a 20757/20824 range as the slow squeeze higher continues.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
                                          Resistance Support
21100 Minor 20757 Session low
21000 Minor 20694 24 Feb low
20900 Minor 20601 21 Feb low
20850 Minor 20566 20 Feb low
20824 Session high    /All time high 20505 17 Feb low

ASX SPI: 5698

The 4 hour/daily momentum indicators have turned a little higher, suggesting that the 5675 lows could hold today and could bring about a mild bounce. If that is the case, expect to find sellers at 5720 and 5740, which if seen would be a reasonable sell area I suspect. On the downside, support will be seen at 5675 and then again at 5665/5650/5620. If global stocks do continue to head higher, then above last week’s high of 5778 look for a run towards the 5789 9th Jan high, to 5800 and then to the May 2015 high at 5814. Right now this looks unlikely and the preference is to sell towards 5720/25 with a SL placed above 5750.

24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Prefer to Sell rallies
Resistance Support
5789 9 Jan high 5675 Session low
5778 16 Feb high 5665 13 Feb low
5760 Minor 5650 (50% of 5526/5778)
5740 200 HMA 5622 (61.8% of 5526/5778)
5720 Minor 5600 Minor

GOLD: 1251

Gold made it to 1263 today although the 200 DMA (1261) again provided a hurdle and it is now back at 1255, just above the lows of 1253 due to the slightly stronger dollar at the end of the session.

The 200 DMA will remain significant resistance but the dailies look mildly constructive, and a topside break could then see a run towards 1270, and possibly on to 1285 and 1300 at some stage. On the downside, back below 1250, support will be seen at 1245 and at 1236. As before, trading from the long side is mildly preferred, looking to buy dips, but with a SL now placed below 1230.

24 Hour: Mildly Bearish Medium Term: Mildly Bullish
Resistance Support
1300 Minor 1253 Session low
1292 10 Nov high 1245 Minor
1286 (76.4% of 1337/1222) 1236 23 Feb low/Daily Tenkan
1270 Minor 1230 Rising trend support/Daily cloud top  / (23.6% of 1122/1263)
1261/63 200 DMA / Session high 1210 100 DMA

SILVER: 18.24

Silver finally made it to the 18.45 (high; 18.48) level that we mentioned previously although a slightly stronger US dollar, late in the day, has seen a reversal to currently sit at 18.30.

The short term momentum indicators now look a little heavy although the dailies remain mildly positive so we could yet be in for a move beyond the current resistance, towards minor resistance at 18.65, above which could then see a quick move to 19.00. On the downside, back below 18.30 would see further support at 18.15/20 ahead of 18.00/17.90. This looks unlikely to be bothered to day, although if wrong further bids would appear at 17.80/75 and at 17.50/55. Buying dips is again preferred, looking for another leg higher although I remain cautious because of the chance of another dollar rally. Keep stops tight below 18.15.

24 Hour: Mildly Bearish Medium Term: Mildly Bullish
Resistance Support
19.30 Minor 18.31 Session low
18.98 10 Nov high 18.15 24 Feb low
18.80 Minor 18.00 200 WMA
18.65 Minor 17.90/94 200 DMA /23 Feb low
18.45 Session high 17.75 13/14/15 Feb lows

OIL (WTI): 54.04

WTI remains choppy, currently sitting near 54.00 after a 53.91/54.59 range.

The short term momentum indicators are neutral again and would seem to suggest that WTI will remain capped below 55.00, but the dailies may be picking up some steam and if we can overcome the 54.90/55.00 area we could head on towards 55.20, beyond which there is not too much to stop it heading 57.00 although this is a long way off at this stage. On the downside, support will be seen at the Friday low at 53.73 and then at the 22 Feb low at 53.35, at 53.00, and again at 52.70. Below there could see a run back to 52.00/51.70 although this seems unlikely.  With the momentum indicators still looking flat, I a cautious stance is required although I mildly prefer the upside, but would have a tight stop placed at around 53.20.

24 Hour: Mildly bullish Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
56.00 Minor 53.73 24 Feb low
55.21 3 Jan high 53.26 17 Feb low
55.00 21 Feb high 52.71 16 Feb low
54.91 23 Feb high 52.20 8 Feb low
54.59 Session high 51.70 Minor