There has been plenty going on today, with the dollar again seeing mixed results as traders remain cautious ahead of the highly anticipated address to Congress by US president Donald Trump, due tomorrow. In terms of data, the US Durable Goods Orders grew 1.8% in January, below expectations of 1.9% while Ex-transport orders dropped -0.2% versus expectation of 0.5% growth. US pending home sales fell by -2.8% v expectations of + 0.9%, the lowest level in a year. Earlier, the Euro made some mild gains after a poll showed the French election centrist candidate, Macron, making up ground on the right wing, Marine Le Pen, while Cable is still attempting to recover from its early Asian selloff. Stocks are maintaining their habit of creeping to daily all-time highs after Donald Trump’s comments of a “big” infrastructure statement on Tuesday. Gold, Silver and Oil were also firm on hopes of a supportive announcement from Trump tomorrow although they retreated late in the day as the dollar moved a little higher. Late in the day, US$Jpy jumped sharply, presumably linked to Trumps earlier comments on an infrastructure announcement, tomorrow, and underpinned by some hawkish comments from the Fed’s Kaplan..
The coming session is going to be a busy one, in terms of data, although the focus will be entirely on what Donald Trump has to say when he addresses Congress on Tuesday, ( early Wednesday in the Asian time zone). Ahead of that, the focus in Asia today will be on the NZ Trade Balance, the Australian New Home Sales, Current Account and Private Sector Credit, and the Japanese Retail Trade/Industrial Production. From Europe, we get the German January Retail Sales and then later in the day there will be plenty of data to come from the US, led by the provisional Q4 GDP, and any upturn from the previous 1.9% could be a sign of a March rate hike, which would generally be supportive of the US dollar. Any chance of that happening may be swept aside if Donald Trump fails to address the tax considerations or to live up to expectations on his infrastructure spending plans. There is plenty of other US data out alongside the GDP (Current Account, Wholesale Inventories, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Mfg Index, US Personal Consumption/Expenditure, Case Shiller House Price Index) although today is likely to be a session of waiting on Trump and could end up being largely rangebound.
EURUSD: Euro is mildly higher today on news that centrist French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron opened up his lead over Republican Francois Fillon and also closed the gap Marine Le Pen. Two polls published over the weekend showed that Macron has 25% voter support going into April’s election, two points behind Le Pen.
USDJPY: Higher, on hopes of a major infrastructure announcement from Donald Trump, tomorrow, underpinned by Kaplan comments on imminent rate hike.
GBPUSD: Consolidating after Asian selloff caused by stories of another Scottish referendum
AUDUSD: Rangebound. New Home Sales, Current Account (Q4), Private Sector Credit (Jan)
NZDUSD: Rangebound. Trade Balance due shortly.
US STOCKS: Creeping higher ahead of Trump address to congress.
ASX SPI: Heavy, with the with the slide precipitated by sliding enthusiasm for the “Trump” trade.
METALS: Firm. Ditto Stocks
OIL: Firm but off its highs after a report showed a build of more than 800,000 barrels at the Cushing storage hub, where WTI is priced
The levels in this table are a guide only. For more in depth analysis please go the “Articles” tab at the top of the page and scroll down.
|INDICES / COMMODITIES|
|ASX SPI: 5699|
|OIL (WTI): 54.06|