28 June: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | June 28, 2019

Markets have generally been choppy again on Thursday as traders square up ahead of the G20. The charts appear to hint at some strength ahead in the Aud$ and further weakness in Sterling, although the G20 headlines will decide the outcome and we could be in for some gapping at the Monday open so, overall, a  cautious stance is required and we could see some position squaring ahead of the weekend. Today is a shortened report and a full update will be done for Monday.

EurUsd:  The Euro chopped around on Wednesday (1.1347-81), and the short term momentum indicators look mixed so it may be that we see further consolidation and I don’t think we are going too far today – unless the EU CPI springs a surprise. Intraday support will once again be seen at the 200 DMA at 1.1350, and then again nearby, at 1.1340 (23.6% of 1.0306/1.0403) and 1.1295 (38.2% of 1.0306/1.0403) although I doubt we get below here today – at least until any G20 statement. On the topside, resistance will be seen at 1.1400 and then at the Tuesday high of 1.1411, beyond which the next target is at 1.1447 (20 March high), which ties in with (23.6% of 1.2555/1.1106) and beyond that would open up 1.1460 (76.4% of 61.8% of 1.1569/1.1105) and 1.1500.

US$Jpy: US$Jpy rallied to 108.16 on Thursday but it has since reversed back to currently sit at 107.80 and remain pretty much unchanged ahead of the G20, and although there is plenty of Jpy related data today it is unlikely to move the markets. The 4 hour charts still look mildly positive, which should once again be supportive for the dollar in the short term and, on the topside, resistance will again be seen at 108.00, 108.10 (23.6% of 112.40/106.78) and the session high at 108.16.. Above here sees a return to the choppy, sideways price action that goes all the way up to 108.80, with the next Fibo levels seen at 108.90 (38.2% of 112.40/106.78) although that seems pretty safe for now. Minor support now lies at  107.45(100 HMA)  , 107.35 and at 107.00, below which buyers would be seen at 106.75/80 but if this gives way there are only minor support levels at 106.50 and106.20 ahead of the next Fibo level at 105.98 (76.4% of 104.00/112.40).  Given the positive look of the 4 hour charts and the possible basing formation in the dailies, trading the US$ from the long side seems favourable although I suspect that we remain choppy today in a failry tight range ahead of any G20 headline.

AudUsd:  The Aud reached a session high of 0.7008 on Thursday, pretty much where it sits after a quietly bid tone throughout the day. The 4 hour charts still look a little toppish and are becoming overbought, and on the downside, with the 1 hour charts also showing some bearish divergence, selling a rally may be the 24 hour plan although the direction will depend entirely on the G20 outcome and a cautious stance is required. If we do drift lower, support should once again arrive at 0.6985, 0.6965 and at 0.6955/60, ahead of 0.6940/50 and then at minor Fibo levels of the rally from 0.6831, at, 0.6920, and 0.6900 and at 0.6875 although this currently looks some way off. On the topside, minor resistance will again be seen at 0.7010, at 0.7021 (7 June high) and then at the 100 DMA at 0.7040 and the 200 DMA at 0.7105. As before, the daily momentum indicators look mildly positive, but without too much upside momentum and if we do see some kind of agreement between Trump/Xi, we can expect a sizable gap higher on Monday so  cautious stance is required over the weekend.


*Trade of the day: June 28, 2019; 6:31 AM(AET)                    

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.

No levels are suggested today ahead of the G20.