28 Mar: US$/stocks rangebound, yields soft on growing concerns over global slowdown. German CPI, US GDP today.

By | March 28, 2019

 

The FX pairs have been fairly steady on Wednesday although Sterling was a bit firmer after UK PM Theresa May has promised to resign if MPs back her Brexit deal. In early Asian trade on Thursday, the UK House of Commons has voted down all 8 of her possible proposals leaving the UK in greater disarray than ever and sending Sterling down by 100bp very quickly. Elsewhere, the Aus$ and the Kiwi both remain heavy after yesterday’s surprise dovish turn by the RBNZ, while EurUsd has been rangebound but looks heavy.

The stock indices were somewhat weighed down by lower US yields and the prolonged inversion in the US treasury yield curve, but have recovered towards the end of the Wednesday session.

The metals are slightly lower, as is WTI although it has been a fairly tight session while waiting on today’s German/US data.

Looking ahead, Thursday will begin with the ANZ NZ Activity Outlook and Business Confidence for March, which could add further pressure to the Kiwi, but Asia will be otherwise quiet.  Europe will look to the German (CPI, exp 0.6%mm, 1.5%yy; HICP exp 1.6%yy) and the EU Economic Sentiment Indicator, Industrial Confidence, Services Sentiment, Business Climate, for guidance while the main event of the day will be the US Q4 GDP (exp 2.4% annualised) and US Personal Consumption Expenditures (exp 1.7%qq). Also due will be the February Pending Home Sales (exp -1.0%mm, -1.8%yy), the Kansas Fed Mfg Activity and speeches from the Fed’s Quarles/Clarida/Bullard.

 Economic data highlights will include:

Thur: NZ ANZ Business Confidence, EU Economic Sentiment Indicator, Industrial Confidence, Services Sentiment, Business Climate, German CPI, US Q4 GDP, US Personal Consumption/Expenditure, Pending Home Sales, Kansas Fed Mfg Activity , Speeches; Fed’s Quarles, Clarida, Bullard

Market moves, in brief:

FX: DXY 96.90 (+0.13%)

Bonds: US10Y; 2.381% (-1.70%), German 10Y; -0.078%(-389%), UK 10Y; 1.015% (+0.75%), Australian 10Y; 1.786% (-2.65%), NZ 10Y; 1.765% (-5.87%), China 10Y; 3.095% (-1.43%)

Stock Indices: DJI; -0.13%, S+P; -0.46%, NASDAQ; -0.58%, EUStoxx50; +0.50%, FTSE100; -0.03%, Shanghai Composite; +0.85%,

Metals: Gold 1309 oz (-0.48%), Silver 15.27 oz (-1.01%), Copper 2.862 lb (-0.03%), Iron Ore 83.63 per tonne (-2.53%),

Oil: WTI 59.38 pb (-1.0%)

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1243
Res  1.1265  1.1285  1.1300
Sup  1.1220  1.1175  1.1200
USDJPY: 110.52
Res  110.65  110.95  111.30
Sup  110.30  110.00  109.70
GBPUSD: 1.3250
Res  1.3270  1.3315  1.3375
Sup  1.3175  1.3080  1.3005
USDCHF: 0.9954
Res  0.9965  0.9980  1.0000
Sup  0.9930  0.9915  0.9895
AUDUSD: 0.7087
Res  0.7105  0.7125  0.7145
Sup  0.7060  0.7040  0.7020
NZDUSD: 0.6797
Res  0.6820  0.6850  0.6875
Sup  0.6785  0.6755  0.6720
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P.fs: 2808.78
Res  2820.00  2830.00  2840.00
Sup  2805.00  2795.00  2785.00
DJ30.fs: 25641.50
Res  25705.00  25825.00  25955.00
Sup  25535.00  25385.00  25200.00
SPI200.fs: 6114
Res  6135  6155  6175
Sup  6095  6070  6040
XAUUSD: 1309.61
Res  1315.00  1320.00  1325.00
Sup  1305.00  1300.00  1295.00
XAGUSD: 15.28
Res  15.35  15.45  15.55
Sup  15.20  15.10  15.00
WTI.fs: 59.37
Res  60.25  61.00  61.90
Sup  58.75  57.95  57.05