28 Nov: US$ firm after the Fed’s Clarida supports further hikes. US GDP ahead; Fed’s Powell, BOE’s Carney up later

By | November 28, 2018

The US$ is generally firmer today without any one particular reason although there was talk of dollar supportive month end flow despite today being only the 28th. Sterling seemed to lead the way lower for the dollar’s counterparts, and remains under heavy pressure because of the general criticism of the Brexit deal, with Donald Trump today throwing some cold water on Theresa May’s plans by questioning the future of US/UK trade. The dollar also seemed to receive support after Trump’s renewed threats to China on tariffs, in stating that he is “highly unlikely” to drop the planned tariff hike on Jan 1 and more could come if no deal is made with Xi this week at the G20. Also underpinning the dollar was the Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida, who backed further interest rate hikes but noted the importance of monitoring economic data

The metals reacted to the dollar’s strength by heading lower, with Gold/Silver down by around 0.8% and with Copper down by 1.5%, which may weigh on the Aud$ today. WTI and stocks have both been choppy, with WTI down around 0.5%, while stocks are up slightly, by 0.1%-0.4%.

Looking ahead, Wednesday will begin with the NZ Financial Stability Report and the Australian Construction Work Done for Q3. Europe will be thin (German Consumer Confidence, UK Bank Stress Tests) but the US will see the Preliminary Q3 GDP (exp 3.5%yy), October Wholesale Inventories  (exp 0.5%), Goods Trade Balance (exp $-76.7 bio), New Home Sales (exp 4.3%mm), Richmond Fed Mfg Index (exp 16). Probably more important than any data will be Fed Chair, Jerome Powell who will be speaking late in the session, as will the BOE Governor, Mark Carney

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1292
Res  1.1320  1.1345  1.1365
Sup  1.1275  1.1250  1.1215
USDJPY: 113.78
Res  113.85  114.00  114.20
Sup  113.65  113.45  113.25
GBPUSD: 1.2730
Res  1.2770  1.2815  1.2865
Sup  1.2690  1.2660  1.2620
USDCHF: 0.9987
Res  1.0000  1.0025  1.0050
Sup  0.9955  0.9925  0.9900
AUDUSD: 0.7225
Res  0.7250  0.7275  0.7300
Sup  0.7200  0.7180  0.7155
NZDUSD: 0.6790
Res  0.6795  0.6820  0.6840
Sup  0.6770  0.6750  0.6725
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P.fs: 2675
Res  2685  2695  2705
Sup  2670  2660  2650
DJ30.fs: 24672
Res  24755  24900  25030
Sup  24535  24405  24235
SPI200.fs: 5731
Res  5750  5780  5815
Sup  5690  5655  5620
XAUUSD: 1213
Res  1220  1225.00  1230
Sup  1210  1205.00  1200
XAGUSD: 14.12
Res  14.25  14.35  14.45
Sup  14.10  14.00  13.90
WTI.fs: 51.29
Res  52.70  53.70  54.70
Sup  50.85  50.00  49.15