28 Sept: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors + Trade Ideas

By | September 28, 2017

 

EURUSD: 1.1744
Preferred Strategy: While I prefer to retain a medium term short position, given the bearish look of the daily charts, the short term momentum indicators do point to the chance of a minor recovery, so I would not be surprised to see a bit of a bounce over the next 24/48 hours. Short term traders could buy it here, with a tight SL placed below 1.1700, or otherwise look to sell any short term rally back above 1.1800. As before, note that we could see a return to the neckline of the H/S formation so SL should be placed above here (1.1850). Sell EurUsd @ 1.1835. SL @ 1.1870, TP @ 1.1680.
24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies
Resistance Support
1.1900 Minor 1.1720/16 (38.2% of 1.1118/1.2091)/Daily cloud top/Session low
1.1860 26 Sept high 1.1700 Minor
1.1825 (38.2% of 1.2005/1.1716) 1.1685 Minor
1.1794 Session high 1.1661 17 Aug low
1.1785 (23.6% of 1.2005/1.1716) 1.1650 Minor

Economic data highlights will include:

T: German Consumer Confidence, CPI, EU Economic Sentiment Indicator, Industrial Confidence, Services Sentiment, Business Climate, US Jobless Claims, Q2 GDP, Kansas Fed Mfg Activity, Personal Consumption/Expenditure Q2, ECB ‘s Praet Speech,  Fed’s George/Fischer Speeches



USDJPY: 112.79
Preferred Strategy: US$Jpy did attempt to break higher, reaching 113.25, ahead of Trump’s tacx announcement although it is now back below 113.00 and further range trading looks likely for the coming session. The dailies still look constructive, so buying dips; with a SL placed sub 112.00 may be a plan.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Mildly Bullish – Prefer to buy dips
Resistance Support
114.00 Minor 112.50 Minor
113.80 Minor 112.20 Session low
113.55 Minor 112.10 200 DMA
113.25 Session high 111.80 Minor
113.00 Minor 111.52 Daily cloud top

Economic data highlights will include:

T: Foreign Bond/Stocks Investment



GBPUSD: 1.3392
Preferred Strategy: Cable was once again choppy, but with a negative bias heading into early London trade. Now near 1.3400, the momentum indicators continue to look heavy so selling rallies is mildly preferred, with a SL placed above yesterday’s high of 1.3513.  On the cross, the diverging rate outlook between the EZ and UK still favors GBP strength against the EUR.

24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
1.3513 26 Sept high /200 HMA 1.3363 Session low
1.3500 Minor 1.3320 (38.2% of 1.2588/1.3656)
1.3460 Minor 1.3300 Minor
1.3430 Minor 1.3290 (23.6% of 1.2108/1.3656)
1.3400 Minor 1.3250 Minor


USDCHF: 0.9716
Preferred Strategy: US$Chf reached the important 0.9770 resistance today, which capped further gains and saw a quick reversal to 0.9690 before settling at 0.9720. I suspect further choppy trade lies ahead with a mild downside bias although medium term traders should be looking to buy the dips for an eventual run above 0.9770 and on to 0.9800/10 and eventually higher. Buy US$Chf @ 0.9660. SL @ 0.9580, TP @ 0.9800
24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
0.9808 30 May  high 0.9700 Minor
0.9785 Minor 0.9683 Session low
0.9772 8 Aug high/(38.2% of 1.0343/0.9420) 0.9660 Minor
0.9769 Session high 0.9641 25 Sept low
0.9740 Minor 0.9635 (38.2% of 0.9420/0.9769)


AUDUSD: 0.7850
Preferred Strategy: The Aud has continued to slide lower and further medium term losses look highly likely although the short term momentum indicators are now a little oversold and a minor topside squeeze would not surprise. Sell AudUsd @ 0.7875. SL @ 0.7910, TP @ 0.7785
24 Hour: Neutral – Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Mildly Bearish
Resistance Support
0.7935 (38.2% of 0.8102/0.7835) 0.7835 Session low
0.7915 Minor 0.7817 (38.2% of 0.7328/0.8113)
0.7900 (23.6% of 0.8102/0.7835) 0.7807 15 Aug low
0.7882 Session high 0.7785 18 July low
0.7870 Minor 0.7760 Minor

Economic data highlights will include:

T: RBA’s Debelle Speech (European time)



NZDUSD: 0.7202
Preferred Strategy: The RBNZ left rates on hold, as expected, and the Kiwi is sitting close to 0.7200. The dailies are flat, so a neutral stance is required although the short term momentum indicators are actually pointing a little higher so a squeeze back towards 0.7250 would not really surprise. Medium term traders may look to sell it there, while short term traders may prefer to buy a dip towards 0.7180, with a SL placed under 0.7150.. Buy NzdUsd @ 0.7180. SL @ 0.7150, TP @ 0.7250.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
0.7285 100 HMA /200 HMA 0.7176 Session low
0.7268 (38.2% of 0.7434/0.7167) 0.7167 26 Sept low
0.7250 Minor 0.7142/45 4 Sept low/200 DMA
0.7239 Session high 0.7131 31 Aug low
0.7220 Minor 0.7105 (61.8% of 0.6817/0.7558)