29 Jan: Forecast: Commodities/Stock Indices + trade ideas

By | January 29, 2018


S&P: 2874
Preferred Strategy:  The S+P made another new all-time high on Friday in its never ending rally, soaring by another 1.2% and making it a gain of 6.3% so far in 2018, adding to its return of 21.8% in 2017.As before, there seems to be little to turn the index around although with the daily/weekly charts at overbought extremes I am not tempted to buy it here. I would not be going short though until there are stronger signs of a reversal. Sidelined.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher Daily Indicators: Up –Overbought Weekly Indicators:   Up –Overbought
Preferred Strategy:  Despite the increasing risks of staying long, the long term uptrend currently remains intact and continuing to buy dips seems to be the plan. Leave a SL below 2820. I prefer to stand aside.
Resistance Support
2895 Minor 2860 Minor
2890 Minor 2855 Minor
2885 Minor 2850 Minor
2880 Minor 2845 Minor
2875 Friday high – all-time high 2840 Friday low

DJI: 26588


ASX SPI: 6013


XAUUSD: 1350


XAGUSD: 17.39


WTI: 66.20
WTI has had a choppy range of 64.89/66.32 on Friday, but closed near the highs and may be building for its next run higher.

The weekly and monthly charts both look very positive although the daily charts are losing some upside momentum and ahead of the FOMC Meeting we could just chop sideways in a 65.00/67.00 range.

1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher Daily Indicators: Turning higher – Possible topping formation. Weekly Indicators:  Turning higher
Preferred Strategy:   The longer term uptrend remains intact, so buying dips seems to be the plan for medium term traders, and looking to get long in the 65.00/50 area with a SL placed below 64.30 looks a reasonable bet right now. In the longer term I suspect that WTI is headed to 70.00+ although right now, as per the weekly chart below, we are up against the 50% pivot of the whole move down from 2014/2016 which may prove to be a near term hurdle.
Resistance Support
67.50 Minor 65.50 Minor
67.00 Minor 64.89 Friday low
66.85 (50% pivot of 107.65/26.03) 64.50 Minor
66.63 25 Jan high 64.30 200 HMA
66.32 Friday high 63.60 Minor