29 Jan: US$ remains heavy following various Davos inspired headlines. Trump, FOMC and NFP in focus this week.

By | January 29, 2018

 

The dollar remained weak, in choppy and volatile trade, on Friday, knocked about by contradictory comments over the preferred direction of the dollar, firstly from Mnuchin and then by Trump. The BOJ’s Kuroda then joined in by surprising traders with some upbeat comments on the Japanese economy, sending the dollar sharply lower.  It was a bad week all round for the dollar, falling by an average of around 2% against the other currencies, with the prospect of more to come in the days ahead. Elsewhere, stocks soared again to new all time highs, with the DJI now up 30% since Trump took office. This week will be a big week for US corporate earnings with some of the big names scheduled to release on Wednesday and Thursday.  Boeing, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Alibaba and Microsoft are all due to report their Q4 earnings.  The metals were choppy but rangebound just below last week’s trend highs, while WTI was much the same but looks as though it may want to take another leg higher in the near future.

It is going to be a busy week ahead, with both the FOMC Interest Rate Decision (Wed) and the US Jobs/NFP/Average Hourly Earnings data (Fri), as well as the State of the Union Speech from Donald Trump (Wed). The FOMC meeting will be Janet Yellen’s last,  and where a hawkish tone is expected after some recent strong data.  With regards to the upcoming employment data, the NFP is expected to rebound to 180k and wages to increase 2.7% yy. There will be plenty more to come this week although today may be relatively rangebound, with little data due (US Personal Consumption/Expenditure) while we await the bigger events later in the week. Tuesday will see the German CPI and the EU Q4 Preliminary GDP, while Wednesday will include the Australian (Q4) and the EU CPI figures (January, Preliminary). Thursday will look to the global Manufacturing PMIs and Friday will focus on the US unemployment data for guidance.

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.2428
Res  1.2450  1.2495  1.2535
Sup  1.2405  1.2385  1.2360
USDJPY: 108.63
Res  108.90  109.25  109.50
Sup  108.30  108.00  107.80
GBPUSD: 1.4165
Res  1.4190  1.4210  1.4235
Sup  1.4135  1.4110  1.4080
USDCHF: 0.9335
Res  0.9350  0.9385  0.9400
Sup  0.9320  0.9290  0.9255
AUDUSD: 0.8108
Res  0.8120  0.8135  0.8160
Sup  0.8100  0.8075  0.8055
NZDUSD: 0.7357
Res  0.7370  0.7400  0.7435
Sup  0.7325  0.7305  0.7290
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P: 2874
Res  2880  2885  2890
Sup  2865  2860  2855
DJI: 26588
Res  26610  26700  26800
Sup  26505  26430  26315
ASX SPI: 6013
Res  6020  6030  6040
Sup  6000  5990  5980
XAUUSD: 1350
Res  1355  1360  1365
Sup  1345  1340  1335
XAGUSD: 17.39
Res  17.55  17.70  17.90
Sup  17.30  17.15  17.00
WTI: 66.20
Res  66.65  67.00  67.50
Sup  65.50  64.90  64.50