29 Oct: US$ lower, Stocks, yields up on trade deal optimism. Thin calendar until tomorrow’s FOMC and US GDP, ADP.

By | October 29, 2019

The US$ is lower while stocks and bond yields are higher, with the S+P at a new all-time high, as a more conciliatory tone between the US and China buoyed hopes for a possible trade deal, while traders are also looking forward, with some optimism, toa rate cut by the Fed at Wednesday’s FOMC Meeting. Donald Trump underpinned the positive tone on Monday when said that he expects to sign a significant part of the trade deal with China ahead of schedule although he did not elaborate on the timing of such a move.

Added to this were some positive corporate headlines from various big name corporate players (Alphabet +2.49%, Microsoft +2.5%), and the generally positive outlook has somewhat dented the safe haven assets, with the Jpy, Chf, and Gold all under some downside pressure. WTI is also lower, having given back Friday’s trade-deal driven gains after failing to clear some technical resistance and on the back of the weekend’s weak Chinese industrial data.

In the UK, PM Boris Johnson has failed to win support for an early general election as MPs voted against his proposal for a December 12th ballot, which means that the Brexit woes continue, with an EU extension, until January 31, now having been approved.  BJ has said that he is going to give it another go on Tuesday to get a vote passed, but the oppsition seem determined to avoid going to the polls. When there is an election, a lot of the current MPs are going to be looking for a new job!

Tuesday begins with the Japan Retail Trade data for October and a speech, later in the session, from the RBA Governor, Philip Lowe. It is then pretty much an empty session from the EU, featuring just the German import Price Index and the UK Consumer Credit figures for September. The US will not provide much inspiration and most trades will stand aside until the FOMC meeting, tomorrow. Today will see just the Case Shiller House Price Index, Pending Home Sales (exp +1.7%mm), Consumer Confidence and API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory. Have a good day.

Economic data highlights will include:

Tue: Tokyo CPI, RBA’s Lowe Speech, German Import/Export Index, US Case Shiller House Price Index, Consumer Confidence, Pending Home Sales, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory

Market moves, in brief:

FX: DXY 97.74 (-0.09%)

Bonds: US10Y; 1.848% (+2.75%), German 10Y; -0.332% (+11.33%), UK 10Y; +0.634% (+9.01%), Australian 10Y; 1.106% (+3.23%), NZ 10Y; 1.210% (0.00 %), China 10Y; 3.290% (+1.80%)

Stock Indices: DJI; +0.54%, S+P; +0.63%, NASDAQ; +1.10%, EUStoxx50; +0.03%, FTSE100; +0.09%, Shanghai Composite; +0.85%,

Metals: Gold $1492 oz (-0.48%), Silver $17.86 oz (-0.98%), Copper $2.6855 lb (0.37%), Iron Ore $90.23 per tonne (NYMEX) (+0.01%),

Oil: WTI $55.72 pb (-1.59%)

EURUSD: 1.1101
Res  1.1110  1.1130  1.1150
Sup  1.1085  1.1065  1.1045
USDJPY: 108.94
Res  109.05  109.30  109.60
Sup  108.65  108.45  108.20
GBPUSD: 1.2867
Res  1.2875  1.2905  1.2945
Sup  1.2835  1.2800  1.2760
USDCHF: 0.9945
Res  0.9960  0.9975  0.9995
Sup  0.9930  0.9910  0.9890
AUDUSD: 0.6842
Res  0.6850  0.6860  0.6870
Sup  0.6830  0.6820  0.6810
NZDUSD: 0.6348
Res  0.6365  0.6380  0.6395
Sup  0.6335  0.6320  0.6305
S&P.fs: 3040.53
Res  3045.00  3060.00  3075.00
Sup  3030.00  3015.00  3000.00
DJ30.fs: 27050.50
Res  27115.00  27215.00  27320.00
Sup  26960.00  26860.00  26760.00
SPI200.fs: 6742
Res  6750  6765  6785
Sup  6725  6705  6685
XAUUSD: 1492.11
Res  1495.00  1500.00  1505.00
Sup  1490.00  1485.00  1480.00
XAGUSD: 17.86
Res  18.00  18.15  18.30
Sup  17.75  17.60  17.45
WTI.fs: 55.74
Res  56.25  56.90  57.50
Sup  55.35  54.70  54.00

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