29 Sept: US$ mildly softer ahead of a busy Friday session. Japan/EU CPI, UK GDP, US PCE & various CB speakers in focus.

By | September 29, 2017

 

The array of US data on Thursday did little to awaken the dollar from its slumber and most pairs are generally not too far from previous levels although it is trading a little on the soft side heading into Friday and could be in danger of losing some of its recent upside momentum as the reality of actually passing Trump’s tax plan takes hold. Released from US, the initial jobless claims rose by 12k to 272k, above expectation of 269k, while the continuing claims dropped -45k to 1.93m in the week ended September 16. The US Trade deficit narrowed to USD -62.9b in August, the wholesale inventories rose 1.0% and importantly, the  Q2 GDP was revised up to 3.1% with price index unchanged at 1.0%. US stocks were unchanged but remained firm, with the S+P briefly making another new all-time high, while the metals were rangebound and WTI a little lower after making a new trend high earlier in the US session.

Friday will be a busy session, beginning with a whole raft of Japanese data, headed by the CPI (exp 0.7% mm) the Australian Private Sector Credit and the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI. Europe will then be busy, with the German Retail Sales (Aug – exp 0.5%mm, 3.3%yy) and EU CPI (Sept – exp 1.6% yy, Core 1.2%yy) along with the UK Q2 GDP (exp 0.3% mm, 1.7%yy) and BOE Speeches from Carney/Broadbent. The main attraction in the US well be the Personal Consumption/Expenditure Index for Aug (exp 0.2%) alongside the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and a speech from the Fed’s Harker. Have a good weekend.

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1782
Res  1.1800  1.1815  1.1825
Sup  1.1770  1.1750  1.1720
USDJPY: 112.30
Res  112.55  112.80  113.00
Sup  112.20  112.00  111.80
GBPUSD: 1.3438
Res  1.3455  1.3485  1.3515
Sup  1.3415  1.3365  1.3390
USDCHF: 0.9701
Res  0.9715  0.9740  0.9770
Sup  0.9695  0.9680  0.9660
AUDUSD: 0.7853
Res  0.7870  0.7885  0.7900
Sup  0.7835  0.7815  0.7800
NZDUSD: 0.7232
Res  0.7240  0.7255  0.7270
Sup  0.7220  0.7200  0.7185
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P: 2507
Res  2510  2515  2520
Sup  2500  2495  2490
DJI: 22321
Res  22340  22385  22450
Sup  22285  22235  22205
ASX SPI: 5660
Res  5690  5710  5730
Sup  5635  5605  5590
XAUUSD: 1287
Res  1290  1295  1300
Sup  1280  1275  1270
XAGUSD: 16.87
Res  16.90  17.10  17.25
Sup  16.70  16.55  16.45
WTI: 51.54
Res  52.20  52.85  53.80
Sup  51.10  50.40  49.60