3 Apr: US$ firm despite Durable Goods miss. Sterling choppy, but firm after May seeks Brexit delay.

By | April 3, 2019

 

The US$ is generally firm at the end of Tuesday trade despite the weaker than expected durable goods report, and sentiments seems to have stabilised ahead of non-farm payrolls report on Friday. The US headline durable goods orders dropped -1.6% in February, below expectation of -1.2%, while the ex-transport orders rose 0.1%, also below expectation of 0.2%.

The Aud$ is heavy following yesterday’s RBA meeting, while Cable has bounced late in the day after UK PM Theresa May stated that she will seek a further extension of Article 50, that ends when a Brexit deal is passed, but wants a deal done ahead of the EU elections taking place from 23/26 May.  She also offered cross-party talks with the leader of the opposition, Jeremy Corbyn, to break the Brexit logjam.

The FX majors are otherwise pretty much unchanged and the action has been seen elsewhere. In particular, WTI is up by 1.3% and looks headed towards the 68.00/70.00 technical target. Tuesday’s gains came about despite news that Russia fell short of its oil-output cut target for last month. Instead the marketing seems to be focusing on the ongoing OPEC production cuts and on the Trump administration’s sanctions on Venezuelan and Iranian oil.

US stocks have had a steady day, ending more or less unchanged, and the metals, likewise, are pretty much where they started the session.

Wednesday will begin with the Australian AIG Performance of Services Index, Retail Sales (exp +0.2% – Feb), Trade Balance (exp $3.8 bio) and the Japan (exp 52.1) and the China Caixin Services PMI (exp 52.3), while Europe and the US will also look to the Services/Composite PMIs, ahead of the US ADP Employment data(exp 165K). The Fed’s Bostic will be speaking.

Economic data highlights will include:

Wed: Australian AIG Performance of Services Index, Retail Sales, Trade Balance, Japan Services PMI, Caixin Services PMI, EU/US Services/Composite PMIs, EU Retail Sales, ADP Employment Change, ISM Non-Mfg PMI, EIA weekly crude oil stock change

Market moves, in brief:

FX: DXY 97.33 (0.00%)

Bonds: US10Y; 2.47% (-0.97%), German 10Y; -0.048%(-43.25%), UK 10Y; 1.006% (-3.84%), Australian 10Y; 1.82% (0.44%), NZ 10Y; 1.865% (1.36 %), China 10Y; 3.17% (0.88%)

Stock Indices: DJI; -0.3%, S+P; 0.00%, NASDAQ; 0.28%, EUStoxx50; 0.21%, FTSE100; 1.01%, Shanghai Composite; 0.2%,

Metals: Gold 1291 oz (0.03%), Silver 15.11 oz (0.04%), Copper 2.909 lb (-0.68%), Iron Ore 89.50 per tonne (2.26%),

Oil: WTI 62.54 pb (1.23%)

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1199
Res  1.1215  1.1235  1.1250
Sup  1.1180  1.1155  1.1130
USDJPY: 111.38
Res  111.70  111.90  112.15
Sup  111.10  110.80  110.55
GBPUSD: 1.3134
Res  1.3160  1.3195  1.3240
Sup  1.3100  1.3045  1.2980
USDCHF: 0.9981
Res  1.0000  1.0020  1.0040
Sup  0.9970  0.9950  0.9930
AUDUSD: 0.7070
Res  0.7085  0.7095  0.7105
Sup  0.7060  0.7050  0.7035
NZDUSD: 0.6755
Res  0.6775  0.6810  0.6840
Sup  0.6730  0.6705  0.6675
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P.fs: 2872.78
Res  2880.00  2890.00  2900.00
Sup  2860.00  2850.00  2840.00
DJ30.fs: 26186.00
Res  26280.00  26400.00  26500.00
Sup  26110.00  25990.00  25890.00
SPI200.fs: 6260
Res  6270  6285  6300
Sup  6245  6230  6215
XAUUSD: 1291.48
Res  1295.00  1300.00  1305.00
Sup  1285.00  1280.00  1275.00
XAGUSD: 15.10
Res  15.20  15.30  15.40
Sup  15.00  14.90  14.80
WTI.fs: 62.61
Res  63.20  64.10  65.10
Sup  62.00  61.20  60.45