3 Mar: Forecast: Stocks, Commodities

By | March 3, 2017


S+P: 2383

US stocks are a little lower today (with the exception of Snapchat, +50%!)

Technically, the dailies still point higher although the 4 hour charts now suggest some downside momentum may be building. A cautious stance is warranted and I would stand aside, but buying dips towards 2360/70 may be a plan within the longer term uptrend. .

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
2415 Minor 2382 Session low
2410 Minor 2370 Rising trend support
2305 Psychological 2360 (23.6% of 2227/2400)
2400 1 March high  /All time high 2350 Minor
2394 Session high 2340 Minor

DJI: 21031

Ditto S+P.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
                                         Resistance Support
21350 Minor 21003 Session low
21300 Minor 20900 Minor
21250 Minor 20809 1 March low
21200 Minor 20750 Minor
21159 1 March high /All time high 20700 Minor

ASX SPI: 5743

The ASX has largely retained yesterday’s bid tone although the 4 hour charts hint at the possibility of some near term weakness.  If so, on the downside, support will be seen at 5725 and 5700 although below here seems unlikely in the coming session. On the topside, if we take out the 5767 high we could then head on to the February high of 5778. Above here, look for a run towards the 5789, 9th Jan high, to 5800 and then to the May 2015 high at 5814. Overall, the dailies still look mildly negative, so once again I prefer to sell into strength for a medium term move lower but would keep a tight SL above 5790, as a continuation of the current bull-run in the US markets would drag the ASX higher as well. As for today, look for 5715/70 to cover it.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies
Resistance Support
5800 Minor 5740 Session low
5789 9 Jan high 5727 200 HMA
5778 16 Feb high 5705 100 HMA
5767 Session high 5685 Minor
5755 Minor 5670 Minor

GOLD: 1234

Gold fell sharply on Thursday, before pulling up at the Fibo support seen at 1230.

Further losses now look possible, with the dailies looking to be tipping lower and if so, look for a move towards 1220 and then back towards the strong support seen in the 1200/10 area. On the topside, resistance will be seen above 1240 and at the session high of 1250. I don’t think we get there today, but selling rallies above 1240 seems to be the plan.

24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
1270 Minor 1231/30 Session low / (23.6% of 1122/1263)
1261/63 200 DMA / 28 Feb high 1220 Minor
1256 (76.4% of 1264/1230) 1211 100 DMA
1249/50 (61.8% of 1264/1230) 1206 3 Feb low
1243 (38.2% of 1264/1230) 1197 1 Feb low

SILVER: 17.77

Silver took a big hit today, falling almost 4% until finding support at the major rising trend support, where it currently sits, just above the day’s lows.

The dailies seem to be rolling over, and with the 4 hour momentum indicators pointing lower it would seem a matter of time before the support is taken out, which would then lead to a move to words 17.00. Offers will now be seen on any approach towards 18.00, and selling into such strength, with a SL above the 200 HMA would seem to be the plan.

24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
18.65 Minor 17.68 Session low /Rising trend support
18.46/48 1 March high/27 Feb high 17.55 10 Feb low
18.20 200 HMA 17.38 (38.2% of 15.63/18.48)
18.00 Minor 17.24 3 Feb low
17.85 Minor 17.05 (50% pivot of 15.63/18.48)

OIL (WTI): 52.66

WTI settled more than 2% lower on Thursday, to finish at session lows of 52.55, as rising U.S. crude stockpiles added to oversupply concerns, while Russia failed to initiate further production cuts in January.

While the dailies are flat, suggesting further choppy trade ahead, the short term momentum indicators are now pointing lower and hint that we could see a run back to 52.00/51.70, below which would then allow for a return to  51.20 and possibly to 50.70. On the topside, offers will now arrive at 53.00/30 and again at 54.00 although this looks unlikely for a while. The momentum indicators are neutral and therefore a cautious stance is required, but I suspect a test of 52.00 may be on the cards.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
54.59 27 Feb high 52.57 Session low
54.41 1 March high 52.20 8 Feb low
54.00 Minor 51.70 Minor
53.75 Minor 51.20 8 Feb low
53.00 Minor 50.69 10 Jan low