30 Apr: A quiet session while waiting on the FOMC (Wed) & NFP (Fri). China Mfg PMI ahead; EU Q1 GDP later.

By | April 30, 2019

 

It has been a steady but mostly positive start to the week, with traders mostly on the sidelines while awaiting Wednesday’s FOMC Meeting and the Friday’s NFP outcome. The US$ is slightly softer but well within its defined ranges against all the other majors, while stocks are pretty much flat and yields mildly firmer. Commodities are mixed, with the metals trading slightly lower and oil a little higher.

In terms of data, the March, US personal income rose 0.1% mm, lower than the expectations of 0.4% mm while personal spending rose 0.9%mm, higher than the expectation of 0.7% mm. The headline PCE was unchanged at 1.5% yy, while core PCE slowed from 1.7% yy to 1.6% yy.

From Europe, the EU Economic Sentiment Indicator dropped -1.6 to 104.0 in April, missing the expectation of 105.0, to mark the 10th consecutive month of decline, and reaching the lowest level in more than two years.

In political news, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told Fox Business Network that he hoped to finalise a trade agreement with China after two more rounds of talks. Chinese vice premier Liu He will lead a delegation to Washington for additional discussions on May 8.

Looking ahead, Tuesday will be busy, beginning with the NZ April Business Confidence (exp -42.8) and Activity Outlook (exp +3.1%) and the Australian Private Sector Credit figure for March (exp +0.3%). The highlights of the session though, will be the China Mfg/Non-Mfg PMIs (exp 50.5/55.0 respectively), the EU Preliminary Q1 Preliminary GDP (exp 0.3%qq, 1.1%yy), the German April CPI/HICP (CPI, exp 0.5%mm, 1.3%yy; HICP, exp 1.6%yy) and then later, the US Pending Home Sales (exp -1%mm -March), Case Shiller House Price Index (exp +3%,, – Feb) and Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (exp 59.3). Have a good day.

 Economic data highlights will include:

Tue: NZ Business Confidence/Activity Outlook, Australian Private Sector Credit, China Mfg/Non-Mfg PMIs, Japan Housing Starts, Construction Orders, German Import/Export Index, Unemployment, EU Q1 Preliminary GDP, German CPI/HICP, US Case Shiller House Price Index, Pending Home Sales, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, Consumer Confidence, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory

Market moves, in brief:

FX: DXY 97.84 (-0.21%)

Bonds: US10Y; 2.531% (+1.37%), German 10Y; 0.003% (+115%), UK 10Y; 1.157% (+1.3%), Australian 10Y; 1.80% (+0.65%), NZ 10Y; 1.905% (-0.26 %), China 10Y; 3.426% (-0.17%)

Stock Indices: DJI; +0.04%, S+P; +0.11%, NASDAQ; +0.19%, EUStoxx50; +0.04%, FTSE100; +0.17%, Shanghai Composite; -0.77%,

Metals: Gold $1280 oz (-0.48%), Silver $14.91 oz (-1.01%), Copper $2.889 lb (+0.17%), Iron Ore (NYMEX) $91.49 per tonne (+0.41%),

Oil: WTI $63.58 pb (+1.19%)

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1183
Res  1.1200  1.1225  1.1250
Sup  1.1160  1.1135  1.1110
USDJPY: 111.65
Res  111.80  112.00  112.15
Sup  111.40  111.20  111.00
GBPUSD: 1.2931
Res  1.2945  1.2980  1.3020
Sup  1.2880  1.2840  1.2800
USDCHF: 1.0195
Res  1.0220  1.0240  1.0260
Sup  1.0180  1.0155  1.0130
AUDUSD: 0.7055
Res  0.7065  0.7090  0.7115
Sup  0.7035  0.7005  0.6975
NZDUSD: 0.6667
Res  0.6680  0.6700  0.6720
Sup  0.6650  0.6625  0.6605
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P.fs: 2942.78
Res  2950.00  2960.00  2970.00
Sup  2930.00  2920.00  2910.00
DJ30.fs: 26555.50
Res  26585.00  26635.00  26690.00
Sup  26490.00  26435.00  26375.00
SPI200.fs: 6339
Res  6350  6365  6380
Sup  6325  6310  6295
XAUUSD: 1279.61
Res  1285.00  1290.00  1295.00
Sup  1275.00  1270.00  1265.00
XAGUSD: 14.91
Res  15.00  15.05  15.10
Sup  14.85  14.80  14.75
WTI.fs: 63.61
Res  64.50  65.40  66.55
Sup  62.90  62.05  61.05