30 July: Solid GDP fails to impress the US$. BOJ, FOMC, BOE all ahead this week.

By | July 30, 2018

 

The US dollar gave up a little ground on Friday despite the solid, yet unspectacular US GDP report, which came in at 4.1%qq against the expected reading of 4.2%. The real interest on the day lay in the stock-markets which headed lower, led by the Nasdaq (-1.45%) and by Twitter in particular, which fell over 20% to $34.12, while Facebook was unable to make regain any of its lost ground after having fallen by 20% Thursday, closing down $1.37 or -0.70%. Elsewhere, it was pretty much a choppy but sideways session with traders either away on holiday or sitting on the sidelines while waiting for the central bank action, starting with the BOJ on Tuesday, and to be followed by the FOMC (Wed) and the BOE (Thur).

Looking ahead, the week will begin on Monday with a light calendar, but with the focus on the German Inflation data (CPI, exp 0.4%mm, 2.1%yy; HICP, exp 2.1%yy), the US Pending Home Sales and the Dallas Fed Mfg Business Climate. Tuesday will be busy, beginning in Asia with the China Mfg/Non-Mfg PMIs and the BOJ Meeting, to be followed later by the Preliminary EU GDP (Q2) and a host of US data, led by the US Personal Consumption/Expenditure Price Index for June. Wednesday will feature the EU Mfg PMIs, which comes ahead of the July FOMC Meeting. No change is expected from the Fed this month and there is no press conference, just a statement, which is likely to reiterate the hawkish tone of the previous meeting. Thursday’s action will focus on the BOE Meeting/Statement/Minutes/Vote Count/APP Facility, where there is a good chance of an August rate hike, with some analysts expecting an MPV vote of 9-0 in favour of a hike. Friday will wind up with the Jobs/NFP/Average Hourly Earnings data (exp 3.9% – Headline rate, 195K – NFP, 0.3% – AHE). Have a good week.

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1656
Res  1.1665  1.1685  1.1700
Sup  1.1635  1.1620  1.1600
USDJPY: 110.98
Res  111.40  111.65  112.00
Sup  110.80  110.60  110.25
GBPUSD: 1.3097
Res  1.3130  1.3170  1.3210
Sup  1.3080  1.3050  1.3000
USDCHF: 0.9947
Res  0.9980  1.0015  1.0065
Sup  0.9920  0.9900  0.9870
AUDUSD: 0.7400
Res  0.7415  0.7440  0.7465
Sup  0.7370  0.7335  0.7315
NZDUSD: 0.6795
Res  0.6810  0.6830  0.6855
Sup  0.6765  0.6745  0.6715
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P: 2817
Res  2830  2840  2850
Sup  2810  2800  2790
DJ30: 25431
Res  25490  25575  25650
Sup  25345  25270  25195
SPI200: 6226
Res  6235  6250  6265
Sup  6205  6185  6160
XAUUSD: 1222
Res  1230  1235  1240
Sup  1220  1215  1210
XAGUSD: 15.48
Res  15.55  15.65  15.75
Sup  15.40  15.30  15.20
WTI: 69.00
Res  69.50  69.90  70.65
Sup  68.90  68.20  67.55