30 Nov: Oil lower ahead of today’s OPEC Meeting. Other markets rangebound. Focus turning to Friday’s NFP.

By | November 30, 2016

With the exception of oil, financial markets have generally traded within their recent bands today despite some better than expected US data, which saw the Q3 GDP growth revised up to 3.2% annualised from the prior estimate of 2.9% beating expectations of 3.0%. The GDP price index was revised lower to 1.4%, from 1.5%. From the EU, the German CPI was unchanged at 0.8% yy in November, while the EU business climate indicator dropped to 0.42 in November, below expectation of 0.57 and the Economic confidence rose to 106.5 but missed expectation of 106.6. Oil extended its losses to trade down over 3% as hopes of an OPEC deal to cut output fade. We shall find out more on this as the session continues.

Wednesday is going to be a busy session, headed by the OPEC Meeting which is going to continue to create plenty of volatility in the oil price. Elsewhere, the RBNZ Financial Stability Report and NZ Building Permits kicks things off ahead of the Australian, October New Home Sales/Building Permits and Private Sector Credit figures for Sept.  From the EU we get the monthly German Retail Sales and Unemployment figures ahead of the important provisional November EU CPI (exp 0.6% yy), following which, Mario Draghi will be speaking again and could create some waves. The UK Financial Stability Report will also be released. From the US we get the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (Nov – exp 51.8) Pending Home Sales (Oct – exp +1%mm), the ADP Jobs data (exp +160K) and the US Personal Consumption/ Expenditure which may combine to provide a fair bit of action. Overall, the day is likely to revolve around the oil price following the OPEC Meeting, with the EIA Crude Oil Stocks Weekly Change also due and which is likely to only add to the volatility.

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.0643
Res  1.0650  1.0685  1.0710
Sup  1.0600  1.0565  1.0535
USDJPY: 112.37
Res  112.70  113.00  113.35
Sup  112.00  111.65  111.35
GBPUSD: 1.2494
Res  1.2530  1.2560  1.2600
Sup  1.2450  1.2400  1.2385
USDCHF: 1.0119
Res  1.0145  1.0175  1.0200
Sup  1.0110  1.0060  1.0080
AUDUSD: 0.7484
Res  0.7495  0.7520  0.7540
Sup  0.7455  0.7430  0.7410
NZDUSD: 0.7126
Res  0.7135  0.7145  0.7170
Sup  0.7100  0.7080  0.7065
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S+P: 2204
Res  2212  2220  2230
Sup  2196  2190  2180
DJI: 19107
Res  19130  19150  19200
Sup  19080  19040  18990
ASX SPI: 5470
Res  5492  5510  5528
Sup  5448  5430  5404
GOLD: 1189
Res  1200  1210  1220
Sup  1180  1170  1160
SILVER: 16.66
Res  16.75  16.85  17.00
Sup  16.45  16.30  16.15
OIL (WTI): 45.31
Res  46.00  47.00  47.65
Sup  44.80  44.00  43.00

 

Indices/commodities
S&P Futures 2204

The S+P had a rangebound session leaving the outlook unchanged on Tuesday.

As before, the dailies still look positive although they may be on the point of tipping over so a cautious stance is required given that the 4 hour charts show little sign of any positive momentum. Ahead of Friday’s US Jobs data we may be in for further consolidation although today’s OPEC Meeting is likely to cause the Energy sector have a volatile ride, which could flow through to the rest of the market. On the downside, back under the 2196 session low will find bids at 2191 (23 Nov low), beneath which will find bids at 2180 and again at 2165. On the topside, resistance will be seen at 2211 above which we might expect a slow grind towards 2220. This looks unlikely right now, but watch for the OPEC headlines. A positive outcome with regards to agreeing on production cuts would see the topside given a good workout. For the time being a neutral stance is required, but given the look of the dailies, buying near term dips still seems to be the longer term plan.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium term: Neutral
Resistance Support
2230 Minor 2196 Session low
2225 Minor 2191 23 Nov low
2220 Minor 2183 200 HMA
2215 Minor 2178 21 Nov low
2211 25 Nov high / All time high 2167 (23.6% of 2028/2211)
DJI Futures 19107
Ditto S+P. The Dow traded a tight range on Tuesday, confined to 19058/131, leaving the outlook unchanged ahead of today’s OPEC Meeting and ADP Jobs data.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium term: Neutral

 

Resistance Support
19500 Minor 19041 28 Nov low
19400 Minor 18973 23 Nov low
19300 Minor 18950 200 HMA
19200 Minor 18911 22 Nov low
19146 24 Nov high   /All time high 18832 21 Nov low
ASX SPI 5470

The AX had a rangebound session leaving the outlook unchanged after trading a range of 5458/92.

The 4 hour/daily momentum indicators are mixed, suggesting a cautious stance heading into Wednesday and on the topside, resistance will again be seen at 5490/5500, at the 5517 28 Nov high and then at the Friday high of 5527. Beyond there, further gains will find little to stop the SPI heading on to the August high of 5568, which should be strong resistance but beyond which could see a run to 5600 and above, and then we could then see a run towards the August 2015 high at 5671.

On the downside, if we head back below the 5450, support will be seen at 5425/30, a break of which could see a run back to 5400, although this looks unlikely today. A range trade looks likely again today, with 5500/5450 again looking likely to cover it, although given the constructive look of the longer term momentum indicators, buying into weakness seems to be the plan.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium term: Neutral
Resistance Support
5568 1 August high 5448 Session low
5540 Minor 5425 200 HMA
5527 25 Nov high 5405 23 Nov low/ (23.6% of 5029/5527)
5517 28 Nov high 5375 Minor
5492 Session high 5335 (38.2% of 5029/5527)
GOLD 1189

Gold had a rangebound session  (1181/95)leaving the outlook unchanged.

The 4 hour momentum indicators still appear mildly positive today and with the dailies also showing early signs of having bottomed out, it may be that we see a squeeze back to 1200, above which could see a run to 1215/20, although this seems unlikely in the next 24 hours. On the downside, support will again be seen at 1180 low, a break of which, another test of 1170 is possible although with the bullish divergence now appearing on the 4 hourlies this looks unlikely. If wrong, below 1170 would find bids at 1155, but below which there is little to hold the price up until 1120. Further out, the weeklies still point lower so any move towards 1220/40 would seem a decent medium term sell opportunity, although we may never get there.

24 Hour: Mildly bullish Medium term: Mildly bullish

 

Resistance Support
1233 16 Nov high 1181 Session low
1220 (23.6% of 1375/1270) 1171 25 Nov Low / (61.8% of 1046/1375)
1210 (23.6% of 1337/1170)/200 HMA 1164 8 Feb low
1200 100 HMA 1157 4 Feb low
1197 28 Nov high 1122 (76.4% of 1046/1375)
SILVER 16.66

Silver had a rangebound session(16.41/71) leaving the outlook unchanged.

As with Gold, the 4 hour charts still show some bullish divergence and further, near-term upside momentum could carry Silver back to the 28 Nov highs and possibly on to 17.00. It could be that Silver is building a minor reverse head/shoulder formation, with a neckline at 16.85, which if that were the case, would have an objective at around 17.50, which if seen would suggest a medium term sell opportunity. Further out a test of 16.00 would not surprise, below which would allow a run towards 15.80 and potentially to 15.40.

24 Hour: Mildly bullish Medium term: Mildly bullish -Prefer to sell rallies

 

Resistance Support
17.50 14 Nov high 16.41 Session low
17.23 (38.2% of 18.98/16. 17)/16 Nov high 16.16 25 Nov Low/23 Nov low
17.00 Minor 16.00 Minor
16.85 (23.6% of 18.98/16. 17)/28 Nov high 15.81 1 June low
16.71 Session high 15.50 Minor
OIL (WTI) 45.31
Oil extended its losses ahead of today’s OPEC Meeting, trading down by over 3% as hopes of a deal to cut output faded. WTI was down 3.5% at $45.47 having earlier seen a low of 44.80. Near term technical levels are below, although they are likely to be blown away once the result is known.  A negative result, which seems likely, would see a quick run towards 40.00, with plenty of analysts suggesting an eventual return to 30.00. On the topside, an agreement will see oil head back towards 50.00. Who knows? Not me!
24 Hour: Neutral Medium term: Mildly Bearish

 

Resistance Support
47.50 61.8% of 49.17/45.12 44.85/90 61.8% of 42.18/49.17/200 DMA
47.00 (50% of 49.17/44.80)/200 HMA 44.80 Session low
46.45 (38.2% of 49.17/44.80) 44.35 15 Nov low
46.00 100 DMA 44.00 Minor
45.80 100 WMA  /(23.6% of 49.17/44.80) 43.80 76.4% of 42.18/49.17

EURUSD: 1.0643

€/Usd has been rangebound on Tuesday, swinging around either side of 1.0600, largely leaving the outlook unchanged although it does appear that for the time being we may have seen the Euro find a base as last week’s 1.0517 low, which appears set to hold, at least until Friday’s US employment data.

Technically, the short term charts remain neutral and possibly show some minor positive momentum. The dailies suggest that a near term base may be in place and that we could yet see a larger squeeze to the topside. If so, above the current session high of 1.0645 could head to the 1.0685 28 Nov high, a break of which would allow a run towards 1.0700/10 and possibly to 1.0745, which given the ongoing demand for dollars would seem to be an area to sell into, with a SL placed above the 16 Nov high of 1.0758.

The downside will again see bids at 1.0600 and at the session low of 1.05654, a break of which could head to the 1.0517/20 lows seen last Thursday although this seems unlikely. Below this would eventually open the way to the March 2013 low at 1.0461 below which there is very little to hold the Euro up ahead of 1.0300 and then again, not a lot until we reach parity. There is a fair bit of data due today, with the EU CPI, the US ADP Jobs data, Pending Home Sales and US Personal Consumption/Expenditure likely to be the focus.

24 Hour: Mildly bullish Medium term: Prefer to sell rallies
Resistance Support
1.0745 17 Nov high 1.0600 200 HMA
1.0725 Minor 1.0564 Session low
1.0703/10 (23.6% of 1.1282/1.0517) /17 Nov high 1.0537 Friday Low
1.0685 28 Nov high 1.0517 24 Nov low/3 Dec 2015 low
1.0649 Session high 1.0462 March 2015 low

Economic data highlights will include:

OPEC Meeting, German Retail Sales, Unemployment, EU Provisional CPI (Nov), US ADP Jobs data, US Personal Consumption/Expenditure, Personal Income/Spending, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, Pending Home Sales, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Weekly Change, Beige Book.

Meta Trader
EURUSD: 4 Hour

euro


USDJPY: 112.37

After an early dip to a low of 111.61, US$Jpy eventually climbed to as high as 113.33 following the release of the better than expected US GDP figure, but has since drifted back to close the US session at 112.50.

The 4 hour momentum indicators have now returned to a more neutral stance, while the dailies still appear to be on the point of tipping over so a cautious stance is required. Given the overbought nature of the dailies, selling into near term strength still seems to be the short term trade plan, with a tight SL placed above last week’s high of 113.89. Above that, although unlikely today, the next Fibo level is seen at 114.20 (61.8% of 121.05/98.94) beyond which we could see a run towards 116.00 and even to 117.80 (76.4% of 121.05/98.94). Back below 112.00 could see another run to the 111.61 session low and then to the 28 Nov lows of 111.35, a break of which, the next realistic support is not seen until 110.85. As we said before, watch out for the OPEC result and the NFP figure this week which will be key drivers for the rest of the week.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium term: Prefer to sell rallies
Resistance Support
114.20 (61.8% of 121.05/98.94) 112.20 Minor
114.00 Minor 112.00 Minor
113.89 25 Nov high 111.61/70 Session low /200 HMA
113.33 Session high 111.35 28 Nov low
112.80 Minor 110.90 (23.6% of 101.18/113.89)

Economic data highlights will include:

Capital Spending, Industrial Production, Housing Starts, Construction Orders

Meta Trader
USDJPY: 4 Hour

yen


GBPUSD: 1.2494

Cable held on to the medium term rising trend support at 1.2385 and rallied strongly, to a high of 1.2525, assisted by month end demand, before closing the day at 1.2500.

The 4-hour momentum indicators are still flat, as are the dailies, suggesting a cautious stance is needed . If anything, the short term momentum indicators look mildly supportive and a break of the session high could see a retest of the 28 Nov high at 1.2531, above which could then see Sterling head to the 14 Nov high of 1.2592, and beyond that, towards the mid November high at 1.2673. On the downside, minor support arrives in the 1.2400/45 area and then at the rising trend support at 1.2385, which  should again see strong bids, albeit that it looks unlikely to be seen again today.  If wrong, back below 1.2360, the 28 Nov low, we could head towards.2300, below which could then see another run towards 1.2245/50. Overall, a choppy sideways session would not really surprise, although the OPEC result could cause some swings in Sterling, with a negative result likely to cap any near term upside potential..

24 Hour: Mildly Bullish Medium term: Neutral
Resistance Support
1.2635 Minor 1.2445 100 HMA
1.2600 Minor 1.2400 Minor
1.2560 Minor 1.2385 Rising trend support/ Session low
1.2531 28 Nov high 1.2360 23 Nov low
1.2525 Session high 1.2301 18 Nov low

Economic data highlights will include:

UK Financial Stability Report:

Meta Trader
GBPUSD: 4 Hour

gbp


USDCHF: 1.0119
US$Chf remained within its recent range on Tuesday (1.0107/1.0175), leaving the outlook unchanged. The short term momentum indicators are now flat, while the daily charts still look constructive although they are losing some of their upside momentum, suggesting that further consolidation may be in store. If the dollar does move higher, we could yet see a sterner test of 1.0200 and possibly to 1.0250 at some stage. Any  dip would again find good buyers at 1.0100/10, below which could see a move back to 1.0060 and possibly to 1.0030, although any such decline would seem to offer a buying opportunity. As we said before, with the weekly charts seemingly picking up steam we could be in for something much bigger going into 2017, with 1.0325 (Nov 2105 high) now coming into view, above which could see a run towards 1.0700 and feasibly to 1.1380 ((38.2% of 1.8309/0.7080). Buying dips remains preferred.
24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips Medium term: Mildly Bullish
Resistance Support
1.0255 29 Jan high 1.0117/07 200 HMA/Session low
1.0223 2 Feb high 1.0078 28 Nov low
1.0193/91 3 Feb high/24 Nov high 1.0060 18 Nov low
1.0175 Session high 1.0030  (23.6% of 0.9548/1.0091)
1.0145 100 HMA 1.0000 Minor
Meta Trader
USDCHF: 4 Hour

chf


AUDUSD: 0.7484

The Aud had a rangebound session (0.7432/96), currently sitting at 0.7480, leaving the outlook unchanged.

The short term momentum indicators look a little mixed and hint that we could see further choppy action today although the dailies still look constructive so we could see further gains, possibly to the topside of the channel that we currently seem to be trading in, where the resistance would now be at 0.7520/55, although we have yet to crack 0.7500, the 17 Nov high. If we do see the Aud at 0.7520, it may be worth a sell, with a SL placed above 0.7550.

On the downside, minor support will arrive at 0.7450/60 and again at the session low of 0.7432, a break of which could then head towards the channel base at around 0.7425. Under here could see a run to 0.7400, and further out, a break of the support at 0.7360 could then head towards 0.7335 and then to 0.7300/10. For the next 24 hours a topside squeeze would not surprise although I would be looking for areas to sell into. The Building Permits , Private Sector Credit  New Home Sales are all due.

24 Hour: Neutral. Medium term: Mildly bullish – Prefer to sell rallies.
Resistance Support
0.7580/83 100 DMA 0.7455 Minor
0.7542 (50% of 7777/0.7310) 0.7432/25 Session low/28 Nov low/Channel base
0.7518/20 200 DMA/Channel top 0.7410 200 HMA
0.7500 17 Nov high 0.7385 Minor
0.7496 Session high 0.7363/61 24 Nov low/22 Nov low

Economic data highlights will include:

HIA New Home Sales, Private Sector Credit, Building Permits

Meta Trader
AUDUSD: 4 Hour

aud


NZDUSD: 0.7126

The Kiwi has had a strong session, breaking above 0.7100, triggering stops and heading on to a high of 0.7130.

With the momentum indicators now seemingly aligned higher, a test of  the Fibo resistance at 0.7135 seems imminent, above which could then open the way to 0.7175/85, beyond which we could yet see a run towards 0.7200. On the downside, support will now be seen at 0.7100 and then at the session low of 0.7065 although the charts suggest that this will be safe today. If wrong, further support would arrive at the 28 Nov low of 0.7042, where the 200 DMA propped it up. The RBNZ Financial Stability Report is due any minute and RBNZ Governor Wheeler will be speaking later on. Building Permits and Business Confidence are also due. Although the Kiwi is currently bid and looks to be headed higher, I find it hard to become bullish at these levels and prefer to look for areas to sell into.

24 Hour: Mildly bullish Medium term: Prefer to sell rallies
Resistance Support
0.7200 Minor 0.7100 Minor
0.7185 (50% of 0.7400/0.6983) 0.7080 Minor
0.7170 Minor 0.7065 Session low
0.7145 15 Nov high 0.7040/45 200 HMA/200 DMA
0.7130/35 Session high/(38.2% of 0.7400/0.6983) 0.7035/32 200 DMA /28 Nov low

Economic data highlights will include:

RBNZ Financial Stability Report, Building Permits (Oct), RBNZ Governor Wheeler Speech.

Meta Trader
NZDUSD: 4 Hour

nzd

The post 30 Nov: Oil lower ahead of today’s OPEC Meeting. Other markets rangebound. Focus turning to Friday’s NFP. appeared first on FX Charts Daily.