30 Oct: Forecast: Stocks/ Commodities

By | October 30, 2017

 

S&P: 2577
Preferred Strategy: The S+P made another new all-time high in the wake of the strong run higher by the Nasdaq on Friday, and from the look of the charts a test of 2600 seems imminent. As before, I prefer not to be involved at these lofty levels although at this stage there is little sign of a turn around.
24 Hour: Mildly bullish Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
25600 Minor 2557 Friday low
2595 Minor 2550 Minor
2590 Minor 2541 25 Oct low /(23.6% of 2415/2580)
2585 Minor 2530 Minor
2580 Friday high    – all-time high 2518 (38.2% of 2415/2580)


DJI: 23357
Preferred Strategy: Ditto S+P. Although the DJI did not make a new all-time high, it does look as though the run higher is set to continue.
24 Hour: Mildly Bullish Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
23550 Minor 23296 Friday low
23500 Minor 23201 25 Oct low
23450 Minor 23104 20 Oct low
23435 24 Oct high   – all-time high 22950 19 Oct low
23414 25 Oct high 22885 17 Oct low


ASX SPI: 5916
Preferred Strategy: The ASX recovered from the Court/Senate inspired dip on Friday, to sit just below 5 month highs and looking as though a test of the all-time high of 6010 may not be too far away. Buying dips seems to be the way to go, with a SL placed tight below Friday’s low of 5830.
24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Mildly Bullish
Resistance Support
6010 March 2015 high 5890 100 HMA
5975 Minor 5880 200 HMA
5944 1 May high 5851 (23.6% of 5625/5922)
5931 3 May high 5830 Friday low
5922 Friday high 5810 (38.2% of 5625/5908)


XAUUSD: 1274
Preferred Strategy: Gold remains under pressure from the stronger dollar but having traded down to 1263 on Friday, it did manage a minor bounce to close at 1274, the session high. As long as we stay above 1260, then I think we could see a minor squeeze back towards 1280/85 but it looks set to remain choppy. In the bigger picture, while looking for a stronger dollar, I suspect 1260 will eventually give way, hinting at a move towards 1245. For now I remain neutral and prefer to sell rallies.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
1309 (50% of 1357/1261) 1274 100 DMA
1306 16 Oct high 1263 Friday low
1296 17 Oct high 1261 6 Oct low/(61.8% of 1205/1358)/200 DMA
1291 20 Oct high 1251 8 Aug low
1280/83 25 Oct high/24 Oct high 1245 Rising trend support


XAGUSD: 16.85
Preferred Strategy: Ditto Gold. Silver bounced nicely off the Fibo level at 16.60 to finish at 16.85 on Friday and would seem set to squeeze back towards 17.00. The dailies are neutral so I remain sidelined, but would sell 17.25 with a 17.60 SL if we saw it, looking for another run towards 16.60.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
17.50 (61.8% of 18.21/16.33) 16.75 Minor
17.27 20 Oct high/19 Oct high /200 WMA 16.60 Friday low/(76.4% of 16.32/17.41)
17.14 24 Oct high 16.45 Minor
17.03 25 Oct high 16.32 6 Oct low
16.86/90 Friday high /100 WMA 16.15 Minor


WTI: 54.15
Preferred Strategy: WTI finally took out the long awaited trend line on Friday, rallying by 2.4% and is now within sight of the  important 55.00 target, beyond  which could then see a run on to 60.00 although this remains over the horizon. On the downside, minor support arrives at 53.75 ahead 52.80 and the more substantial 52.25/50 area. Trading from the long side is still preferred.  Buy WTI @ 53.00. SL @ 51.95, TP @ 55.00.
24 Hour: Neutral  – Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Mildly Bullish
Resistance Support
56.50 Minor 53.75 Minor
55.21 3 January high 52.80 Minor
55.00 21 Feb high 52.22 Friday low
54.41 1 March high 51.53 24 Oct low
54.16 Friday high 50.85 20 Oct low