30 Sept: US$ mixed on trade uncertainties, slowing data. Euro, Gbp both heavy. China PMIs, German CPI due today

By | September 30, 2019

The US$ ended flat and stocks a little lower on Friday after some mixed data indicated that the economy may be slowing somewhat and adding to the case that the Fed may need to cut rates again because consumers spent less and companies cut their equipment orders in August. Consumer spending on goods and services rose 0.1% in August, against the previous months 0.4% rise, while durable goods orders inched up 0.2% compared to a rise of 2% in July. The Euro did bounce around a little, and actually fell to levels last seen in May 2017, not helped by soft German and French inflation data before getting some reprieve from a bid tone in EurGbp on the back of the ongoing Brexit concerns. Elsewhere there was not too much going on although stocks were weighed down by the US data and by a report suggesting that the US could limit investment in China and block Chinese companies from US exchanges.

WTI chopped around but ended lower because of the growing economic uncertainty, while Gold and Silver were also both heavy, but held on above important respective support levels.

The coming week is going to be a busy one although with China out for the whole week (apart from today), Asia is likely to be fairly quiet. Monday will begin with a bit of NZ data (Building Permits, Activity Outlook, Business Confidence) which may push the Kiwi around, and will then look to the China Mfg PMIs and the German CPI for guidance, along with the UK GDP, and from the US, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index and the Dallas Fed Mfg Business Climate. Tuesday will kick off with the NZ Q3 Business Confidence, the Australian Mfg PMI, the Japan Tankan and the RBA Interest Rate Decision. Later on, we get the rest of the global Mfg PMIs, the EUCPI and the ISM Mfg PMI/Prices Paid. Wednesday will be a thin calendar although the US ADP Employment Change will be released late in the day, while Thursday will see the NZ Building Permits, Australian Services/Composite PMIs, Australian Building Permits, Trade Balance, EU PPI, Retail Sales and the EU/US Services/Composite PMIs. Finally, Friday will have the Australian Retail Sales and then later in the day we get the September US employment report (exp 3.7%, +140K, AHE; +0.3%mm, AWH; 34.4). Have a good week.

Economic data highlights will include:

Mon: NZ Building Permits, Activity Outlook, Business Confidence, Japan Retail Trade, Industrial Production, Construction Orders, Housing Starts, Australian Private Sector Credit, China Official Mfg/Non Mfg PMIs, Caixin China Flash Manufacturing PMI, German Import/Export Index, Retail Sales, Unemployment, CPI/HICP, UK GDP, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, Dallas Fed Mfg Business Climate

Tue: China National Holiday, NZIER Business Confidence, Australian CBA/AIG Performance of Mfg Index, Japan Tankan, Unemployment, Consumer Confidence, Japan Jibun Mfg PMI, RBA Interest Rate Decision/Statement, Commodity Index, EU/UK/US Mfg PMIs, EU CPI, ISM Mfg PMI/Prices Paid, Construction Spending, Total Vehicle Sales,  API weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory

Wed: China National Holiday, Australian Import Price Index, New Home Sales, Swiss CPI, US ADP Employment Change, ISM Business Confidence

Thur: China National Holiday, NZ Building Permits, Australian Services/Composite PMIs, Building Permits, Trade Balance, EU PPI, Retail Sales, EU/US Services/Composite PMIs, US Factory Orders, Jobless Claims

Fri: China National Holiday, Australian Retail Sales, US Jobs/NFP/Average Hourly Earnings, Trade Balance

Market moves, in brief:

FX: DXY 99.13 (-0.08%)

Bonds: US10Y; 1.684% (-0.66%), German 10Y; -0.577% (+0.98%), UK 10Y; 0.421% (-5.03%), Australian 10Y; 0.956% (-0.75%), NZ 10Y; 1.110% (-1.48 %), China 10Y; 3.133% (-0.16%)

Stock Indices: DJI; -0.26%, S+P; -0.53%, NASDAQ; -1.13%, EUStoxx50; +0.39%, FTSE100; +1.02%, Shanghai Composite; +0.11%,

Metals: Gold $1497 oz (-0.49%), Silver $17.54 oz (-1.57%), Copper $2.5975 lb (+0.78%), Iron Ore $89.72 per tonne (NYMEX) (+0.96%),

Oil: WTI $56.07 pb (-0.78%)

EURUSD: 1.0941
Res  1.0960  1.0980  1.1000
Sup  1.0925  1.0905  1.0885
USDJPY: 107.91
Res  108.00  108.45  108.20
Sup  107.65  107.45  107.25
GBPUSD: 1.2293
Res  1.2320  1.2360  1.2395
Sup  1.2270  1.2235  1.2195
USDCHF: 0.9909
Res  0.9925  0.9950  0.9975
Sup  0.9900  0.9880  0.9860
AUDUSD: 0.6765
Res  0.6775  0.6790  0.6810
Sup  0.6750  0.6735  0.6720
NZDUSD: 0.6295
Res  0.6305  0.6325  0.6350
Sup  0.6280  0.6255  0.6230
S&P.fs: 2963.28
Res  2975.00  2990.00  3005.00
Sup  2950.00  2935.00  2920.00
DJ30.fs: 26796.00
Res  26900.00  27035.00  27180.00
Sup  26680.00  26550.00  26415.00
SPI200.fs: 6675
Res  6695  6725  6750
Sup  6660  6640  6620
GOLD: 1498
Res  1510  1520  1530
Sup  1495  1485  1470
XAGUSD: 17.50
Res  17.70  18.05  18.35
Sup  17.30  17.05  16.80
WTI.fs: 55.90
Res  56.55  57.40  58.40
Sup  54.75  54.00  53.00