30Nov: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors + trade ideas

By | November 30, 2017


EURUSD: 1.1853
EurUsd is unchanged on Thursday after having bounced off rising-trend support, and a similar session looks possible today although a big day of data may produce plenty of volatility. OPEC, EU CPI, US Personal Consumption/Expenditure in focus.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Mixed Daily Indicators: Up – Possible topping formation. Weekly Indicators:  Neutral
Preferred Strategy:  Another choppy day looks likely although I prefer to trade from the short side, with a SL placed just above 1.1920. Look to trade the range 1.1800-1.1900.
Resistance Support
1.1960/64 27 Nov high / (76.4% of 1.2091/1.1553) 1.1816 Session low )/Rising trend support
1.1950 Minor 1.1805 (38.2% of 1.1553/1.1943)/Rising trend support
1.1920 28 Nov high 1.1775 100 DMA/55 DMA
1.1900 Minor 1.1755 (50% of 1.1553/1.1943)
1.1882 Session high 1.1730 Minor

Economic data highlights will include:

OPEC Meeting, German Retail Sales, Import/Export Index, Unemployment, EU CPI, Unemployment, US Personal Consumption/Expenditure Price Index, Personal Spending, Jobless Claims, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index

USDJPY: 111.88
US$Jpy is slightly firmer today, although unable to maintain its highs above 112.00. Now back above the important 111.70 level, this should provide support and buying dips is preferred.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Mildly Bullish Daily Indicators: Down – Possible basing formation. Weekly Indicators:  Neutral
Preferred Strategy:  I prefer to lean towards the upside, but without looking for too much directional movement today. Possible range trade 111.50/112.30 although Neutral Korean headlines may see a move to safe haven so stops should be left below 111.20.
Resistance Support
112.75 (50% of 114.73/110.83) 111.70 100 DMA/200 DMA
112.30 (38.2% of 114.73/110.83)/Weekly cloud top 111.35 Session low
112.14 Session high 111.02 (50% pivot of 107.31/114.73)
112.05 200 WMA 110.92 28 Nov low
111.95 Daily cloud top 110.83 27 Nov low

Economic data highlights will include:

Preliminary Industrial Production – Oct, Foreign Bond/Stocks Investment, Housing Starts

GBPUSD: 1.3411
Sterling continues to benefit from the more positive Brexit headlines, and the momentum indicators suggest that further gains lie ahead.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Mixed – Turning higher Daily Indicators: Turning higher Weekly Indicators:  Turning higher?
Preferred Strategy:  Good resistance lies at 1.3450 but if that is taken out, then there is little to stop a move towards 1.3500 and eventually to the September high at 1.3656. I prefer to trade from the long side and think Sterling has further good gains ahead of it, against both the dollar and on the crosses.

Buy GbpUsd @ 1.3385. SL @ 1.3290, TP @ 1.3450

Buy GbpAud @ 1.7680 SL @ 1.7580, TP @ 1.7900

Sell EurGbp @ 0.8870. SL @ 0.8925, TP @ 0.8760

Resistance Support
1.3600 Minor 1.3400 Minor
1.3570 Minor 1.3385 Minor
1.3505 (76.4% of 1.3656/1.3073) 1.3339 Session low
1.3480 Minor 1.3280 Daily cloud top
1.3450/55 Descending trend resistance/28 Sept high 1.3221 28 Nov low

Economic data highlights will include:

UK Consumer Confidence

USDCHF: 0.9841
US$Chf  is unchanged after a tight range of 0.9818/69
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Neutral Daily Indicators: Neutral Weekly Indicators:  Neutral
Preferred Strategy:  The momentum indicators are offering little hint either way, and a neutral stance is required although out of choice I prefer to trade the dollar from the long side.

Buy US$Chf @ 0.9800. SL @ 0.9770, TP @ 0.9900

Resistance Support
0.9946 21 Nov high 0.9835 100 WMA
0.9905  (76.4% of 0.9946/0.9776) 0.9818 Session low
0.9880  (61.8% of 0.9946/0.9776) 0.9805/00 200 DMA /28 Nov low
0.9869 Session high 0.9776 27 Nov low
0.9860 (50% of 0.9946/0.9776) 0.9727 (50% of 0.9420/1.0037)

Economic data highlights will include:


AUDUSD: 0.7573
AudUsd has recovered from a session low of 0.7551 leaving the short term outlook rather mixed. Direction today will come from the Capex, Housing data and the China PMIs.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Mixed Daily Indicators: Pointing mildly higher Weekly Indicators:  Neutral
Preferred Strategy:  A choppy session could be in store although I lean towards selling into rallies, looking for an eventual test of 0.7500 and lower as we approach the next Fed meeting on Dec 13.

Sell AudUsd @ 0.7600. SL @ 0.7635, TP @ 0.7520

Resistance Support
0.7665 13 Nov high /(23.6% of 0.8102/0.7531) 0.7551 Session low  (61.8% of 0.7159/0.8124)
0.7644 27 Nov high 0.7531 21 Nov low  /100 WMA
0.7620 28 Nov high 0.7515 (76.4% of 0.7328/0.8124)
0.7606 Session high 0.7500 Minor
0.7590 200 HMA 0.7475 Rising trend support

Economic data highlights will include:                                                                      

HIA New Home Sales, Building Permits, Aust Private Sector Credit, China Mfg/Non-Mfg PMIs

NZDUSD: 0.6885
The Kiwi is lower today, after failing on the topside at0.6929, and is currently trading towards the lows of 0.6875. Direction today will come via the NZ Building Permits, ANZ Activity Outlook, Business Confidence  and the China PMIs.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower Daily Indicators: Turning higher Weekly Indicators:  Turning lower
Preferred Strategy:  Selling rallies still seems to be the plan, with a SAL placed above 0.6930.

In the bigger picture,  with the longer term (weekly) charts looking heavy, I suspect the Kiwi is currently biding its time ahead of a more sustained test of the downside. In the short term though, I suspect another test of 0.6920/30 may lie ahead and it is possible that we could even see a return to the neckline of the major head and shoulders, at 0.6990, before heading lower.

Resistance Support
0.7000 Minor 0.6875 Session low
0.6980 9 Nov high 0.6844 24 Nov low
0.6945 28 Nov high 0.6820 Minor
0.6933 (23.6% of 0.7434/0.6783) 0.6800 Minor
0.6928 Session high 0.6779 17 Nov low

Economic data highlights will include:                

NZ Building Permits, ANZ Activity Outlook, Business Confidence