31 Oct, US$ heavy as Trump’s former campaign manager faces conspiracy charges. Gbp firm ahead of BOE.

By | October 31, 2017

 

The US$ and stocks are a little heavy today as political manoeuvres take the focus off the economic data.  News that Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller has launched the first charge on Russian interference into the US election and that Paul Manafort, a former campaign manager for Donald Trump, has been indicted on 12 counts including “conspiracy against the United States” did not help affairs. In terms of data, the Euro was initially weighed down by the German CPI which rose by 0.0% mm in October, and by 1.6% yy, down from 1.8% yy, and missed expectation of 1.7% yy. Later on from the US, Personal income rose 0.4% in September, up from 0.2% meeting consensus, while spending jumped solidly by 1.0%, above expectation of 0.9%. The headline PCE accelerated to 1.6% yy while core PCE was unchanged at 1.3% yy. In other currencies the main interest was in the Yen, which took on a bid tone as risk sentiment soured a little due to the political uncertainties, while Sterling was better bid ahead of Thursday’s BOE meeting, with traders pinning hopes on a rate hike. Otherwise it has been a fairly quiet session, with the highlight being seen in WTI, which made a new 7 month high due to ongoing speculation that OPEC will agree to extend output cuts beyond March.

Tuesday will begin with a busy Asian session, including the NZ ANZ Activity Outlook and Business Confidence, the Australian New Home Sales and Private Sector Credit and the China Mfg/Non Mfg PMIs. The main focus will be on the BOJ Interest Rate Decision although no change to policy is expected and most of the interest will lie in the press conference. From Europe comes the Provisional Q3 GDP figure (exp 0.2% qq, 2.4% yy), Unemployment (exp 9.0%) and the October CPI (exp 1.4%, Core; exp 1.2%). The US will be thin, with just the Case Shiller House Price Index and the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (exp 60.0) to go on. Most traders will be holding fire while waiting on tomorrow’s FOMC Meeting.

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1651
Res  1.1665  1.1690  1.1720
Sup  1.1625  1.1600  1.1575
USDJPY: 113.17
Res  113.50  113.85  114.45
Sup  113.00  112.75  112.30
GBPUSD: 1.3207
Res  1.3215  1.3235  1.3275
Sup  1.3180  1.3150  1.3115
USDCHF: 0.9943
Res  0.9975  1.0000  1.0035
Sup  0.9940  0.9915  0.9890
AUDUSD: 0.7687
Res  0.7700  0.7715  0.7740
Sup  0.7670  0.7655  0.7625
NZDUSD: 0.6877
Res  0.6900  0.6920  0.6940
Sup  0.6840  0.6815  0.6800
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P: 2568
Res  2580  2590  2600
Sup  2560  2555  2550
DJI: 23287
Res  23360  23435  23550
Sup  23275  23195  23145
ASX SPI: 5899
Res  5910  5925  5945
Sup  5890  5875  5855
XAUUSD: 1276
Res  1280  1285  1290
Sup  1270  1265  1260
XAGUSD: 16.84
Res  16.90  17.00  17.15
Sup  16.70  16.60  16.50
WTI: 54.09
Res  54.40  55.20  56.50
Sup  53.70  52.85  52.00