4 Apr: Stocks rebound, US$ generally firm. Australian Retail Sales, Building permits ahead. EU CPI later.

By | April 4, 2018

 

US stocks ended higher on Tuesday after a choppy session, with traders now looked forward to the earnings season, with Amazon leading the way on hopes that criticism from Donald Trump would not translate to policy changes. The US$ was mixed but generally firmer against the EU majors, with US$Jpy rebounding well on the back of the move in stocks. The Euro is a little lower in the US session after having broken down through minor support. The commodity bloc is mixed, with the Aud heavy ahead of the upcoming Retail Sales, but the Kiwi is underpinned due to some sales of AudNzd.

In terms of data, the EU PMIs initially did little to move the market although the Euro has remained heavy ever since their release. The EU PMI manufacturing was finalised at 56.6 in March, unrevised, down from February’s final reading of 58.6, while the German manufacturing PMI was revised down to 58.2, from 58.4. The UK PMI manufacturing rose 0.1 to 55.1 in March, above expectation of 54.7. Earlier in the European session, the German retail sales were down 0.7% mm, well below the forecast of being up 0.6%.

Wednesday is going to be a busy 2 Apr, with the focus being on the Preliminary March EU CPI (exp 0.9% mm, 1.4% yy; Core, 1.1% yy) and Unemployment rate (exp 8.5% – Feb). Before then Australia will look to the Feb Retail Sales (exp +0.3% mm) and Building Permits (exp -0.7% mm) for guidance, as well as the Caixin China Services PMI.  Later in the day, the US 2 Apr will see the March ADP Jobs data (exp 205K), the Markit services/Composite PMIs, the ISM Non-Mfg PMI and the Feb Factory Orders (exp 1.8%).  The EIA Crude Oil Stocks Weekly Change are due and the Fed’s Bullard/Mester will also be speaking.

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.2269
Res  1.2285  1.2300  1.2315
Sup  1.2255  1.2240  1.2220
USDJPY: 106.58
Res  106.65  107.00  107.30
Sup  106.30  106.00  105.65
GBPUSD: 1.4060
Res  1.4090  1.4115  1.4160
Sup  1.4020  1.3985  1.3945
USDCHF: 0.9587
Res  0.9595  0.9610  0.9625
Sup  0.9570  0.9555  0.9525
AUDUSD: 0.7685
Res  0.7725  0.7705  0.7745
Sup  0.7665  0.7645  0.7625
NZDUSD: 0.7258
Res  0.7270  0.7285  0.7300
Sup  0.7245  0.7225  0.7200
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P: 2611
Res  2620  2640  2660
Sup  2590  2570  2550
DJI: 23974
Res  24085  24275  24445
Sup  23795  23640  23465
ASX SPI: 5745
Res  5760  5780  5800
Sup  5710  5730  5695
XAUUSD: 1333
Res  1340  1345  1350
Sup  1325  1320  1315
XAGUSD: 16.42
Res  16.55  16.70  16.80
Sup  16.35  16.20  16.10
WTI: 63.54
Res  63.85  64.25  64.80
Sup  62.75  62.10  61.45