4 Apr: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | April 4, 2019

The FX markets have been mostly steady on Thursday although the US$ is under a bit of pressure against the commodity currencies and also the Euro, which has squeezed a little higher. The charts though are giving no real hint of any directional move today and I suspect it will be a largely rangebound session while waiting on tomorrow’s US jobs data.

Note that US$Jpy is making an attempt to break above the 200 DMA at 111.45 but if it manages to make positive headway, the 200 WMA lies at 112.05.

AudUsd is running up against descending trend resistance at 0.7130, beyond which would allow for a look at the 100 DMA at 0.7150, beyond which opens the way to the 200 DMA at 0.7205. The downside looks reasonably well protected below 0.7100 today and I doubt that we see 0.7080.

EurUsd has found decent support below 1.1200. A break of 1.1175 is need to maintain the downside pressure, which seems unlikely today. Fibo resistance at 1.1268 (23.6% of 1.1569/1.1175) will provide resistance above which could then run on to 1.1300/25 although I don’t see it today.

US stocks have had a steady session but do appear ready to continue to the topside in the medium term, where a run towards 2900 in the S+P may be on the cards. At the same time, the DJI may see a run towards 26400, above which could target 26950.

WTI has had a rangebound session (62.03/62.96) after having broken above the 200 DMA at 61.50 and, now at 62.50, appears set to run towards 63.50 (61.8% of 76.87/42.23) and then onto the S/H/S target at 70.00. Buy dips, with SL below 61.00.

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*Trade of the day: April 4, 2019; 8:29 AM(AET)                      

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.

Sell EurUsd @1.1270. SL @ 1.1295, TP @ 1.1180

Buy EurUsd @ 1.1200. SL @ 1.1170, TP @ 1.1290

Sell AudUsd @ 0.7150. SL @ 0.7180, TP @ 0.7050

Buy AudUsd @ 0.7080. SL @ 0.7045, TP @ 0.7145

Buy S+P @ 2860. SL @ 2840, TP @ 2900

Buy WTI @ 61.70. SL @ 60.70, TP @ 63.50