4 Aug: Forecast: Stock Indices, Commodities

By | August 4, 2017


S&P: 2470
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
No change in view. The S+P traded another tight 2465/75 range on Thursday.

As before, with the daily momentum indicators still pointing higher, further gains would seem possible in the days ahead, although the short term charts are flat on Tuesday so another rangebound 31 July could lie ahead and progress, if any, may be slow.

As before, I prefer to remain sidelined at these levels.

Preferred Strategy: Neutral

Resistance Support
2490 Minor 2463 2 Aug low
2485 Minor 2461 28 July low
2480 Minor 2456 27 July low
2480 27 July high  -All-time high 2457 19 July low
2476 1 Aug high 2447 18 July low/(23.6% of 2345/2475)

DJI: 21970
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
The DJI CFD reached yet another new all time high on Thursday of 21987 (21987/21926) and closed nearby, suggesting that the trend will continue. As we said before though, some caution is warranted as the S+P will need to play catch-up in order for the uptrend to continue.  As before, I prefer to remain on the sidelines. The NFP will provide the direction.

Preferred Strategy: Neutral

Resistance Support
22150 Minor 219sg Session low
22100 Minor 21858 1 Aug low
22050 Minor 21682 28 July low
22000 Minor 21631 27 July low
219992 2 Aug high – all-time high 21550 Rising trend support

ASX SPI: 5666
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
The choppy, sideways trade continues – today trading 5641/5699.

As we said before, the momentum indicators still look pretty neutral and the chart looks a complete mess so I would not be too involved right now. More of the same looks likely and the range of 5600/5765 look set to cover it in the medium term. The Retail Sales and the Monetary Policy Statement may provide some direction.

Resistance Support
5765 100 DMA 5650 Minor
5747 4 July high 5641 Session low
5727 1 Aug high 5630 28 July low
5710 Minor 5592 24 July low/(38.2% of 5029/5944)
5692 Session high 5580 Minor

XAUUSD: 1268
24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Mildly Bullish
Gold had a tight 31 July (1265/71), leaving the outlook unchanged.

As before, the daily momentum indicators point higher, and we could yet see a run towards 1275/80, if the dollar remains under pressure,  which should see good selling interest but above which would open the way to the previous, June high of 1296.

On the downside, good support now lies at 1250/1260 (minor) and then at 1243/45 and again at 1235.

Preferred Strategy: I prefer to wait for the NFP, but looking to buy at around 1250/55, with a SL placed under 1245, would seem to be the plan, looking for a run towards 1290/95 although 1280 may be tough to take out so some caution is needed.

Resistance Support
1296 6 June high 1257 Session low
1280 Descending trend resistance /14 June high 1257/54 (23.6% of 1205/1270)
1275 (76.4% of 1295/1208) 1253 Rising trend support
1274 1 Aug high 1245/43 (38.2% of 1205/1270)26 July low
1271 Session high 1237 (50% of 1205/1270)

XAGUSD: 16.62
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Silver is chopping around within a 16.45/75 range, and with the momentum indicators giving little hint either way a neutral stance is required.

With the dailies still pointing mildly higher, if 16.70/75 can be taken out we could be in for a run towards 16.90 and then to 17.00 /17.10, which should be good resistance. Further progress, towards 17.35, will depend on the direction of the dollar and today’s NFP outcome.

The short term momentum indicators look flat, and if we fail to make progress, then on the downside the initial support arrives at 16.45. A break of this could quickly lead back below 16.25/30 towards 16.05/10, and then below 16.00, to 15.85/95.

Preferred Strategy: Neutral. Wait on the US jobs data.

Resistance Support
17.08/10 15 June high/200 DMA 16.60 200 HMA
17.00 100 DMA 16.43 Session low
16.90 (50% of 18.65/15.18)/29 June high 16.30 26 July low
16.87 31 July high 16.20 (38.2% of 15.18/16.87)
16.70 Session high 16.13 20 July low

WTI: 48.90
24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Prefer to buy dips
WTI settled lower on Thursday as traders turn their focus on the OPEC meeting next week for fresh insight into the oil cartel’s commitment to improve compliance with the deal to curb production. Having squeezed up to a high of 49.93, WTI is now back at 48.90 and a neutral stance is required.

The short term momentum indicators look a bit heavy, and further downside action could see a return to 47.85/48.00, below which there is little to support the price until 47.15.

On the topside, resistance will be seen at the 200 DMA ahead of the session high of 49.93. Beyond that could see a return to the recent high at 50.40 and then to 50.85 although this seems unlikely today

Preferred Strategy: Wait for the US jobs data, although the short term momentum indicators are hinting at lower levels ahead.

Resistance Support
50.85 Descending trend resistance 48.76 Session low
50.40 1 Aug high 48.53 2 Aug low
50.20 (61.8% of 55.21/42.03) 48.40/34 (23.6% of 42.02/50.40)/1 Aug low
49.83 Session high 47.85/92 26 July low /100 DMA
49.40 200 DMA 47.15 (23.6% of 42.02/50.40)