4 Dec: Forecast: Stocks/ Commodities.

By | December 4, 2017

 

 

S&P: 2643
The S&P had a wild ride on Friday (2604/50), but recovered from the spike low to finish not too far from the all-time highs.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower? Daily Indicators: Up Weekly Indicators:  Up
Preferred Strategy:  Despite the increasing risks of staying long, there seems to be no real reason to change the view, given the strength of the long term uptrend. I prefer to remain sidelined.
Resistance Support
2670 Minor 2635 Minor
2665 Minor 2630 Minor
2660 Minor 2520 Minor
2658 30 Nov high    – all-time high 2510 Minor
2650 Friday high 2604/00 Friday low/(23.6% of 2421/2658)


DJI: 24227
Ditto S+P
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower Daily Indicators: Up Weekly Indicators:  Up
Preferred Strategy:  Neutral
Resistance Support
24550 Minor 23922 Friday low
24500 Minor 23850 Minor
24450 Minor 23800 30 Nov low
24400 Minor 23750 27 Nov low
24327 30 Nov high – all-time high 23700 Minor


ASX SPI: 5992
The ASX had a choppy ride on Friday but fished near the highs, with 6000 seemingly set to continue to act as a pivot.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Neutral Daily Indicators: Turning lower Weekly Indicators:  Up
Preferred Strategy:  Further choppy trade seems to be in store and a neutral stance is best. The weeklies do point higher and thus buying dips towards 5900 may be a medium term plan.
Resistance Support
6100 Minor 5978 30 Nov low
6070 Minor 5960 24 Nov low
6050 Minor 5948 Friday low
6043/46 13 Nov high/9 Nov high 5929/27 20 Nov low/16 Nov low
6021 Friday low 5900 Minor


XAUUSD: 1280
Gold had a choppy ride on Friday in spiking up from 1272 to 1289 as safe haven demand came to the fore, before retreating to finish the week at 1280, which has acted as a rough pivot since early October. Watch Silver, which seems to be leading the way lower.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher Daily Indicators: Neutral Weekly Indicators:  Neutral
Preferred Strategy:  Neutral – the short term momentum indicators seem to be turning a little higher but otherwise, the broad range-trade between 1265/95 seems set to remain intact.
Resistance Support
1313 26 Sept high 1275 Minor
1309 (50% of 1357/1261) 1271 Friday low
11299 27 Nov high 1261 6 Oct low/(61.8% of 1205/1358)/200 DMA
1297 30 Nov high 1258 Rising trend support
1289/1285 Friday high/100 DMA 1251 8 Aug low


XAGUSD: 16.42
Silver fell to 16.24, a new 4 month low on Friday, before bouncing back to finish at 16.55, but beginning to look increasingly heavy as medium term support levels begin to look rather thin.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher Daily Indicators: Turning lower? Weekly Indicators:  Neutral
Preferred Strategy:  The short term momentum indicators look a little more positive on Monday but the dailies are picking up some mild downside momentum so selling rallies is mildly preferred, with a tight SL in place.

Sell Silver @ 16.85. SL @ 17.25, TP @ 15.90

Resistance Support
16.94 (61.8% of 17.38/16.24) 16.24 Friday low
16.80 (50% of 17.38/16.24) 16.12 7 Aug low
16.75 Minor 16.00 Minor
16.67 (38.2% of 17.38/16.24) 15.88 (76.4% of 15.1818.21)
16.55 Friday high 15.75 Minor


WTI: 58.25

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Gold had a choppy ride on Friday in spiking up from 1272 to 1289 as safe haven demand came to the fore, before retreating to finish the week at 1280, which has acted as a rough pivot since early October. Watch Silver, which seems to be leading the way lower.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher Daily Indicators: Neutral Weekly Indicators:  Neutral
Preferred Strategy:  Neutral – the short term momentum indicators seem to be turning a little higher but otherwise, the broad range-trade between 1265/95 seems set to remain intact.
Resistance Support
1313 26 Sept high 1275 Minor
1309 (50% of 1357/1261) 1271 Friday low
11299 27 Nov high 1261 6 Oct low/(61.8% of 1205/1358)/200 DMA
1297 30 Nov high 1258 Rising trend support
1289/1285 Friday high/100 DMA 1251 8 Aug low

 

 

 

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SILVER:

Silver fell to 16.24, a new 4 month low on Friday, before bouncing back to finish at 16.55, but beginning to look increasingly heavy as medium term support levels begin to look rather thin.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher Daily Indicators: Turning lower? Weekly Indicators:  Neutral
Preferred Strategy:  The short term momentum indicators look a little more positive on Monday but the dailies are picking up some mild downside momentum so selling rallies is mildly preferred, with a tight SL in place.

Sell Silver @ 16.85. SL @ 17.25, TP @ 15.90

Resistance Support
16.94 (61.8% of 17.38/16.24) 16.24 Friday low
16.80 (50% of 17.38/16.24) 16.12 7 Aug low
16.75 Minor 16.00 Minor
16.67 (38.2% of 17.38/16.24) 15.88 (76.4% of 15.1818.21)
16.55 Friday high 15.75 Minor

 

 

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OIL (WTI):

WTI settled up slightly on Friday, but off session highs as financial markets reacted to concerns over the trump/Flynn/Russia headlines. Overall a choppy session 57.27/58.86 covered it and more of the same seems possible today.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher? Daily Indicators: Neutral – Turning lower Weekly Indicators:  Turning higher
Preferred Strategy:  The mixed look of the momentum indicators suggests a neutral stance. Overall though I still think we are likely to see a move towards 60.00 and buying dips may still be the plan.
Resistance Support
61.80 June 2015 high 57.70 Minor
60.00 Minor 56.27 Friday low
59.02 24 Nov high 55.72 (23.6% of 45.56/58.95)
58.90/95 200 WMA/27 Nov high 55.00 Minor
58.86 Friday high 54.80 14 Nov high


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