4 Dec: A wild ride Friday, with the US$ opening higher on Monday after the Senate passed Trump’stax bill, Saturday.

By | December 4, 2017

 

The US$ and stockmarkets were both under pressure but recovered from their lows on Friday after reports that the former national security adviser to Donald Trump, Michael Flynn will testify against the President and/or Trump’s family. As some of the details and accusations grew clearer, the selling relented and the markets returned towards levels that had previously been traded. It was a volatile ride though in all markets, with US yields falling sharply (and taking US$Jpy & US$Chf with it as safe haven demand sprung to life) after the Flynn story broke. The commodity currencies had a solid rebound from the heavy conditions seen during the week, led by the $CAD, which shot sharply higher after a spectacular November jobs report and a slightly-better-than-expected GDP number. The metals chopped around in mostly heavy fashion, but both ended the day not too far from their previous closes, while WTI bounced by 1.67% in the wake of last week’s OPEC meeting.

The coming week will be busy throughout, with the US tax bill passed in the Senate on Saturday giving us a clue as to the initial direction for the coming session, and then culminating with Friday’s US jobs data (exp NFP +195K, Headline 4.1%, AWH 34.4, AHE 0.3%). In early Monday trade the US$ has taken on a mildly bid tone in reaction to the passing of the tax bill, leaving some small chart gaps to be closed.  Elsewhere this week, the AUD$ will be particularly busy, both domestically and also in terms of Chinese data, with the local highlights being the RBA Interest Rate Decision/Statement on Tuesday and Q3 GDP on Wednesday, while the focus in China will be on the Caixin China Services PMI (Wed) and the Trade Balance (Fri).  Also note that the China CPI/PPI will be released on Saturday. The focus today will be on the TD Inflation and the ANZ Job Ads for Australia, although it will then be fairly quiet for the rest of the day with just the EU Sentix Investor Confidence Survey, EU PPI and the US Business Conditions and Factory Orders to go on. The ECB’s Draghi, Coeure and Villeroy de Galhau are listed to speak today.

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1898
Res  1.1915  1.1940  1.1960
Sup  1.1885  1.1865  1.1850
USDJPY: 112.17
Res  112.50  112.85  113.00
Sup  112.00  111.75  111.40
GBPUSD: 1.3475
Res  1.3500  1.3520  1.3550
Sup  1.3445  1.3430  1.3405
USDCHF: 0.9758
Res  0.9785  0.9805  0.9815
Sup  0.9735  0.9725  0.9710
AUDUSD: 0.7611
Res  0.7620  0.7635  0.7645
Sup  0.7595  0.7575  0.7555
NZDUSD: 0.6890
Res  0.6915  0.6945  0.6980
Sup  0.6875  0.6850  0.6815
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P: 2643
Res  2650  2660  2670
Sup  2635  2630  2620
DJI: 24227
Res  24340  24500  24600
Sup  24090  23920  23765
ASX SPI: 5992
Res  6010  6020  6040
Sup  5975  5950  5930
XAUUSD: 1280
Res  1285  1290  1295
Sup  1275  1270  1265
XAGUSD: 16.42
Res  16.55  16.80  17.00
Sup  16.25  16.00  15.85
WTI: 58.25
Res  58.80  59.05  59.50
Sup  58.00  57.70  57.25

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