4 June: US$ fails to capitalise on strong jobs data. Australian Retail Sales ahead.

By | June 4, 2018

 

The US employment data on Friday was strong although the lack of follow-through in seeing a stronger US$ was rather puzzling. The NFP grew by 223k in May, above expectation of 190k, while the headline unemployment rate dropped to 3.8%, beating expectation of 3.9% to hit the lowest level in 18 years. The wage growth was also solid, with average hourly earnings rising by 0.3% mm, beating expectation of 0.2% mm. Stock markets liked the figures and the US indices closed up by around 1%, while WTI was not so sure, and under pressure from the possibility of OPEC increasing production, fell by 1.8%. The metals were steady.

Looking ahead, today will be fairly quiet, with little to come from Asia, aside from some Australian figures, including the Retail Sales (exp 0.2%mm), ANZ Job Ads and May New Home Sales. Europe will look to the Sentix and the EU PPI (0.4%mm) for guidance, while the US may see some action after the release of the ISM Business Conditions and the April Factory Orders. The major events of the week will be tomorrow’s RBA Meeting – no change expected, Wednesday’s Australian GDP, Thursday’s EU Q1 GDP, and then Friday’s China Trade Balance for May. All up, it looks like geopolitics that will dominated the next few days.

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1659
Res  1.1720  1.1755  1.1795
Sup  1.1615  1.1570  1.1510
USDJPY: 109.51
Res  109.90  110.30  110.55
Sup  109.10  108.75  108.40
GBPUSD: 1.3346
Res  1.3400  1.3440  1.3490
Sup  1.3290  1.3255  1.3205
USDCHF: 0.9878
Res  0.9910  0.9935  0.9960
Sup  0.9860  0.9825  0.9790
AUDUSD: 0.7566
Res  0.7590  0.7610  0.7630
Sup  0.7540  0.7515  0.7495
NZDUSD: 0.6986
Res  0.6995  0.7015  0.7030
Sup  0.6975  0.6960  0.6940
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S+P: 2735
Res  2740  2750  2760
Sup  2725  2715  2705
DJ30.fs: 24639
Res  24680  24740  24785
Sup  24590  24525  24470
SPI200.fs: 6029
Res  6045  6060  6075
Sup  6010  5995  5975
GOLD: 1293
Res  1300  1310  1320
Sup  1290  1280  1270
XAGUSD: 16.39
Res  16.50  16.60  16.70
Sup  16.35  16.25  16.20
OIL (WTI): 65.68
Res  66.45  67.40  68.15
Sup  65.10  64.20  63.35