4 Mar: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | March 4, 2019

There seems to be plenty of opportunity at the start of the week and, as with last week, selling the commodity currencies and the metals still seems to be the way to go. The Aud in particular looks very heavy and a more sustained test of 0.7000 may lie ahead. Note that the Aud$/Usd is resting on the neckline of a head/shoulder formation at current levels. A successful break would signal the potential for a 200 point drop.

The EU majors remain rangebound but they do generally look rather heavy against the US$, while the CNH is also looking rather heavy and may be worth buying on dips.

Note that US$Chf, having broken below the 100 DMA almost met the 200 DMA (0.9912) on Thursday but then bounced and maintained its level above the 100 DMA (0.9957) on Friday. As long as this level holds I suspect we might see the US$ head a bit higher early in the week.

The metals look increasingly heavy and I like to remain short, while US stocks are choppy/sideways, so best left alone for now. Note that the ASX seems strong though as markets begin to price in the chances of a rate cut – and possibly even some QE somewhere down the track as the economy slows.

As for WTI, fell hard and the charts do appear to be turning lower. It looks to me as though we are in for further choppy trade between the 100 WMA (58.00) and the 200 WMA (52.00)


*Trade of the day: March 4, 2019; 9:26 AM(AET)                               

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.

Range Trade: EurUsd: 1.1300/1.1400 (SL 30 pips either side)

Sell AudUsd @ 0.7100. SL @ 0.7050, TP @ 0.7010

Sell NzdUsd @ 0.6820. SL @ 0.6840, TP @ 0.6720

Sell Gold @ 1300. SL @ 1310, TP @ 1285

Buy US$Jpy @ 111.50. SL @ 111.15, TP @ 112.35