4 May: Forecast: Stock Indices, Commodities

By | May 4, 2017


S&P: 2382

US stocks are steady on Wednesday, largely unaffected by the outcome of the FOMC Meeting, with the S+P pretty much confined within recent parameters and leaving the outlook unchanged. (Range; 2375/85)

As before, the momentum indicators still look mixed and another rangebound session would not really surprise while waiting on Friday’s NFP. The dailies still look mildly constructive, although I would not be getting too carried away in either direction at this stage, and I would continue to trade the range while below 2400  – looking to sell around 2390, while strong sport lies at 2340/50. A break of the all-time high at 2400 could herald the start of a new leg higher, so I would be keeping stops on any shorts fairly tight. In the short term, the downside will continue to see bids at 2365/75 and again at around 2350/55.

 24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
2405 Minor 2375 Session low
2400 1 March/All time high 2367 25 Apr low
2394 26 Apr high 2355 Minor
2390 1 May high 2348 Chart gap
2385 Session high 2340 Minor

DJI: 20872

Ditto S+P. Range: 20804/20906

I suspect we are going to continue to chop around below the 21159 all-time high for the next few days, but beware of a topside break which could herald the start of a new leg higher, so keep stops tight above 21160.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
                                         Resistance Support
21159 1 Mar/All time high 20804 Session low
21129 2 Mar high 20765 Minor
21035 3 Mar high 20700 Minor
20927 28 Apr high 20630 24 Apr low
20906 Session high 20600 Minor

ASX SPI: 5871

The ASX took a hiding yesterday in falling from its recent trend highs, pressured lower by both the banks and the miners, with the SPI hitting a low of 5862 before a minor bounce to finish the day at 5870.

With the 4 hour momentum indicators pointing lower and the dailies apparently topping out as well, the downside seems to be the path of least resistance now, and a break of the session low could see a run back toward 5830 and eventually towards 5800.

On the topside, resistance will be seen at 5890/5905, and if we see it there I would be tempted to sell it, with a SL placed just above the trend high of 5944, which looks fairly safe for now.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Mildly bearish
Resistance Support
5950 Minor 5862 Session low
5944 1 May high 5850 Minor
5920 Minor 5833 (38.2% of 5655/5944)
5905 100 HMA 5820 Minor
5890 200 HMA 5800 (50% pivot of 5655/5944)

XAUUSD: 1237

Gold finally broke through various support levels below 1250 following the FOMC decision and headed swiftly to a low, so far of 1235, and looks increasingly heavy.

On a break of 1235, which should be strong support, look for a run towards 1220 and eventually to 1210 and lower. On the topside, if we get back above minor resistance at 1245, we will then head back to the 200 DMA at 1252 and the session high of 1256 although this now looks unlikely. Selling rallies is again preferred.

24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Mildly bearish
                                         Resistance Support
1278 25 Apr high 1239 Rising trend support
1265 200 HMA 1233/35 (61.8% of 1195/1295) /200 WMA/Session low
1256 Session high 1229 (38.2% of 1122/1295)
1252 200 DMA 1218 (76.4% of 1195/1295)
1245 Minor 1209 (50% of 1122/1295) /100 WMA

XAGUSD: 16.43

Silver again came under pressure following the FOMC decision and has so far traded down to 16.40, currently underpinned by the Fibo support at 16.35.While the short term momentum indicators still point lower, they are becoming rather oversold so some caution is warranted down here as we could see a minor bounce/consolidation. The dailies point sharply lower though, so a break of 16.25/35 could see an acceleration to 16.00 and lower, eventually to test the previous low at 15.63 (19 Dec).

Resistance will again arrive at 16.5/70 and again at 16.85/95 although this seems unlikely to be seen again for a while. Trading from the short side is again the preferred strategy.

24 Hour: Mildly bearish Medium Term: Mildly bearish
Resistance Support
17.35 100 DMA 16.40 Session low
17.28 (38.2% of 18.65/16.44) 16.35 (76.4% of 15.63/18.65)
16.95 (23.6% of 18.65/16.44) 16.25 6 Jan low
16.88 Session high 16.00 Minor
16.65 Minor 15.80 Minor

WTI: 47.51

WTI had another choppy session (47.28/48.20) but has held on above the strong support at 47.05, leaving the outlook unchanged,

The 4 hour and daily momentum indicators are still looking negative, and with the dailies pointing increasingly lower WTI could potentially see a test of the triple bottom at 47.05. This should be strong support if we get there although a break would open the way to a quick move towards 45.25 (76.4% of 42.18/55.21).

On the topside, resistance will again be seen at the session high of 48.20 above which could then head back to the 200 DMA. This look unlikely today but if wrong further strength could see a return to the recent highs at 49.30, 49.73 and 50.17. Looking to sell into strength seems to be the play for now.

 24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Neutral – Mildly bearish
Resistance Support
50.30 (38.2% of 53.75/48.20) 47.28 Session low
50.17 26 Apr high 47.06/07 14/22/27 Mar lows
49.73 28 Apr high 46.50 Minor
49.29 1 May high 46.00 Minor
49.05 200 DMA 45.30 (76.4% of 42.18/55.21)