4 Oct: Forecast: Stock Indices, Commodities

By | October 4, 2017

 

S&P: 2533
Preferred Strategy: Another day, another all-time high. The slow grind higher seems to be accelerating and appears set to continue but I prefer to stand aside. Neutral.
24 Hour: Mildly Bullish Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
2555 Minor 2525 Minor
2550 Minor 2520 Minor
2540 Minor 2515 27 Sept low
2535 Minor 2511 (23.6% of 2445/2532)
2533 Session high  – all-time high 2499 (38.2% of 2445/2532)


DJI: 22612
Preferred Strategy: Ditto S+P
24 Hour: Mildly Bullish Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
22800 Minor 22500 Session low/27 Sept low
22750 Minor 22450 25 Sept low
22700 Minor 22400 Minor
22650 Minor 22350 Minor
22621 Session high – all-time high 22000 Minor


ASX SPI: 5691
Preferred Strategy: Neutral. Trade the range is the best medium term suggestion I think. Something like 5600/5750? Otherwise, stand aside.
24 Hour: Mildly Bullish Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
5745 Minor 5672 Session low
5731 20 Sept high /Session high 5640 Minor
5725 Minor high 5621 21 Sept  low
5715 Minor 5607 29 Aug low
5700 Minor 5592 24 July low/(38.2% of 5029/5944)


XAUUSD: 1272
Preferred Strategy: While the medium term trend remains lower, the short term momentum indicators are turning to point a little higher so a squeeze back towards 1280/90 seems possible. If seen, look to sell that, with a tight SL placed just above 1300. Sell Gold @ 1285. SL @ 1303, TP @ 1250.
24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Mildly Bearish
Resistance Support
1314 26 Sept high 1268/67 Session low/15 Aug low
1302 (38.2% of 1357/1268) 1262 (61.8% of 1205/1358)
1290 (23.6% of 1357/1268) 1251 8 Aug low/200 DMA
1285 Minor 1245 Minor
1280 Minor 1240 Minor


XAGUSD: 16.62
Preferred Strategy: Ditto Gold. Look to sell into near term rallies within the greater downtrend. Sell Silver @ 16.90. SL @ 17.15, TP @ 16.40.
24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Mildly Bearish
Resistance Support
17.30 200 WMA 16.57/54 15 Aug low/Session low
17.16 25 Sept high 16.45 Minor
17.10 200 DMA /(23.6% of 18.21/13.77) 16.33 (61.8% of 15.16/18.20)
16.90 29 Sept high 16.12 7 Aug low
16.75 Minor 16.00 Minor


WTI: 50.10
Preferred Strategy: WTI looks increasingly heavy and a move below 50.00 seems likely although further out I still think we will eventually see a move back to 55.00 and higher.  Right now though the charts suggest a run below 50.00 to 49.65, a break of which would then see the chance of 49.00 and possibly 48.35/50.
24 Hour: Mildly Bearish Medium Term: Mildly Bearish
Resistance Support
53.04 19 April high 50.20 Session low
52.83 29 Sept high 50.05 (38.2% of 45.56/52.83)
52.00 Minor 49.65 20 Sept low /200 DMA
51.30 100 HMA/200 HMA 49.18 (50% of 45.56/52.83)
50.70 Session high 48.35 (61.8% of 45.56/52.83)