5 Apr: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | April 5, 2019

The FX markets have once again been mostly steady on Friday, and the charts are rather mixed. I suspect it will be a largely rangebound session while waiting on the US jobs data although Cable looks heavy in the short term (but is best left alone), as does the Kiwi, where the dailies are turning lower, but still sits above important support at 0.6735 (200 DMA).

US$Chf also looks mildly firmer, as does EurChf which may be a better trade in order to avoid US$ exposure later today.

EurUsd has found decent support at 1.1200 over the last couple of days. A break of 1.1175 is needed to maintain the downside pressure, and will require a strong NFP outcome to do so today. Above Thursday’s high of 1.1247, Fibo resistance at 1.1268 (23.6% of 1.1569/1.1175) will provide the initial resistance, above which could then run on to 1.1300/25 although I don’t see it today.

Note that US$Jpy is closing above the 200 DMA at 111.45 but if it manages to make positive headway, the 200 WMA lies at 112.05. A positive NFP will be required to maintain the positive risk outlook.

AudUsd has again run up against descending trend resistance at 0.7130, beyond which would allow for a look at the 100 DMA at 0.7150. Above here opens the way to the 200 DMA at 0.7205. The downside looks reasonably well protected below 0.7100 for much of the session and I doubt that we see 0.7080, at least until the NFP, below which would see good support at 0.7050 and again at 0.7000

Note that on the crosses, AudNzd looks as though it may be forming a base and could continue to squeeze higher.

Elsewhere, Gold and Silver look slightly better bid in the short term after a sharp dip/rally in the US session.

US stocks have had another steady session but do appear ready to continue to the topside in the medium term, where a run towards 2900 in the S+P may be on the cards. At the same time, the DJI may see a run towards 26500/550, above which could target 26950.

WTI has had another rangebound session (61.87/62.75) after having broken above the 200 DMA at 61.50 and, now at 62.10, appears set to run towards 63.50 (61.8% of 76.87/42.23) and then onto the S/H/S target at 70.00. Buy dips, with SL below 61.00.

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*Trade of the day: April 5, 2019; 8:28 AM(AET)                      

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.

Orders have been set wide today to allow for the NFP outcome. Ahead of that it should be fairly quiet – barring any major breakthrough in the US/China trade talks.

Sell EurUsd @1.1280. SL @ 1.1305, TP @ 1.1180

Buy EurUsd @ 1.1175. SL @ 1.11400, TP @ 1.1290

Sell AudUsd @ 0.7195. SL @ 0.7215, TP @ 0.7050

Buy AudUsd @ 0.7020. SL @ 0.6990, TP @ 0.7145

Buy S+P @ 2860. SL @ 2840, TP @ 2900

Buy WTI @ 61.50. SL @ 60.80, TP @ 63.50