5 Dec: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors + trade ideas

By | December 5, 2017

 

EURUSD: 1.1852
After gapping lower at the open, €/Usd had a choppy session in a tight range, with more of the same looking likely. The PMIs will be the major focus today.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Neutral Daily Indicators: Possible topping formation Weekly Indicators:  Neutral
Preferred Strategy:  The short term momentum indicators look pretty neutral and another tight day would not surprise. I remain neutral on the Euro, although the daily charts, which had been leaning higher appear to be running out of steam and may be hinting of further dollar strength ahead. Look to trade 1.1800/1.1900 today.
Resistance Support
1.1960/64 27 Nov high / (76.4% of 1.2091/1.1553) 1.1828 Minor
1.1939 1 Dec high 1.1805 (38.2% of 1.1553/1.1943)/30 Nov low
1.1900 Pivot 1.1775 100 DMA/55 DMA
1.1885 Chart Gap 1.1755 (50% of 1.1553/1.1943)
1.1877 Session high 1.1707 (61.8% of 1.1553/1.1943)

Economic data highlights will include:

EU/US Services/Composite PMIs, EU Retail Sales, US Trade Balance, ISM Non-Mfg PMI



USDJPY: 112.58
US$Jpy has remained underpinned on Monday as risk appetite returned to the fore, although it was capped by the cloud top at 113.08 and headed lower into the end of the session, finishing the day on its lows.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower Daily Indicators: Turning higher Weekly Indicators:  Neutral
Preferred Strategy:  A nimble stance is required again although the short term momentum indicators look a little heavy and further downside movement seems possible. The dailies though are leaning higher now and buying dips is preferred for the medium term. Look for a range of 112.20/113.10 to cover it today, with further consolidation likely ahead of the US Jobs report, Friday.
Resistance Support
113.80 (76.4% of 114.73/110.83) 112.60 Session low
113.50 Minor 112.30 Chart Gap
113.20 (61.8% of 114.73/110.83) 112.00 Minor
113.08 Session high 111.60/65 100 DMA/200 DMA
112.85 Minor 111.35/39 29 Nov low /1 Dec low


GBPUSD: 1.3464
Cable had a run up to 1.1338 on the positive Brexit comments, particularly regarding the future of the Irish border, but quickly gave back the gains as talks of an impasse emerged. It sits mid-range at 1.3475 at the end of the session and further 1.3400/1.3520 consolidation would not surprise.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower Daily Indicators: Turning higher Weekly Indicators:  Turning higher?
Preferred Strategy:  It looks set to remain choppy for Sterling, with Brexit headlines likely to guide the direction. I still like it higher though and prefer to buy dips, looking for a run to 1.3650. Ahead of that 1.3550 will see good sellers if we get there.

Buy GbpUsd @ 1.3400. SL @ 1.3320, TP @ 1.3550

Resistance Support
1.3656 20 Sept high 1.3450 Minor
1.3595 22 Sept high 1.3430 Minor
1.3549 1 Dec high 1.3412 Session low
1.3538 Session high 1.3380 200 HMA
1.3500 Minor 1.3352 (23.6% of 1.3038/1.3549)


USDCHF: 0.9858
US$Chf rebounded strongly on Monday as risk appetite returned and is closing towards session highs of 0.9865
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher Daily Indicators: Neutral Weekly Indicators:  Neutral
Preferred Strategy:  With both the short term and daily momentum indicators now neutral some choppy consolidation seems likely ant 0.9820/0.9900 could well cover it today. Overall I prefer to buy dips, looking for an eventual return to 0.9900/50.

Buy US$Chf @ 0.9820. SL @ 0.9780, TP @ 0.9920

Resistance Support
0.9946 21 Nov high 0.9835 100 WMA
0.9920 Minor 0.9805 200 DMA
0.9895  (76.4% of 0.9946/0.9776) 0.9783 Chart Gap
0.9880 30 Nov high 0.9735 1 Dec low /100 DMA
0.9865  (61.8% of 0.9946/0.9776) /Session high 0.9727 (50% of 0.9420/1.0037)


AUDUSD: 0.7593
AudUsd opened lower and has chopped around on Monday, mostly below 0.7600, albeit with a brief spike to 0.7613. It is a busy day for data ahead, led by the Current Account, the October Retail Sales and the RBA, although the momentum indicators are giving little hint in either direction right now.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Neutral Daily Indicators: Turning higher Weekly Indicators:  Turning lower
Preferred Strategy:  The near term momentum indicators look mixed on Tuesday suggesting a cautious stance ahead of the RBA and the Retail Sales.  It could be quite a choppy session, but overall I still prefer be short Aud$ as we approach the FOMC next week when the Fed are expected to hike rates. I therefore suspect that further upside for the Aud will be limited and selling into rallies is still preferred.

Sell AudUsd @ 0.7620. SL @ 0.7655, TP @ 0.7550

Resistance Support
0.7690 Minor 0.7585 100 HMA
0.7665 13 Nov high /(23.6% of 0.8102/0.7531) 0.7578 Session low
0.7644 27 Nov high 0.7550 1 Dec low  /100 WMA / (61.8% of 0.7159/0.8124)
0.7638 1 Dec high 0.7531 21 Nov low
0.7613 Session high 0.7515 (76.4% of 0.7328/0.8124)

Economic data highlights will include:

AIG Services PMI, Current Account, Retail Sales, RBA Interest Rate Decision, Caixin China services PMI



NZDUSD: 0.6847
The Kiwi is trading towards session lows on Tuesday, although the daily charts still look supportive so a cautious stance is required.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Up Daily Indicators: Turning higher Weekly Indicators:  Turning lower
Preferred Strategy:  As with the Aud$, the short term momentum indicators are neutral and a cautious stance is required today, The dailies are mildly positive but with the weeklies looking heavy, I still prefer to look for levels to sell into, for an eventual return to the downside, where 0.6780/6800 would provide decent support. For today, a range of 0.6800/0.680 might cover it, although the Global Dairy Trade Index due in European time may provide some directional movement.
Resistance Support
0.6945 28 Nov high 0.6840 Session low
0.6933 (23.6% of 0.7434/0.6783) 0.6816 1 Dec low
0.6928 29 Nov high 0.6800 Minor
0.6911 1 Dec high 0.6779 17 Nov low
0.6870 Session high 0.6750 Minor

Economic data highlights will include:

Global Dairy Trade Index



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