5 Dec: Forecast: Stocks/ Commodities.

By | December 5, 2017


S&P: 2638
The S&P gapped higher on Monday’s open, making a new all-time high before reversing lower to finish at around 2640.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower? Daily Indicators: Up Weekly Indicators:  Up
Preferred Strategy:  The shorter term indicators are pointing lower and a move towards 2600 would not now surprise. Further out, despite the increasing risks of staying long up here, there seems to be no real reason to change the view, given the strength of the long term uptrend. I prefer to remain sidelined.
Resistance Support
2680 Minor 2636 Session low
2675 Minor 2630 Minor
2670 Minor 2625 Minor
2664 Session high     – all-time high 2515 Minor
2655 Minor 2505 Minor


DJI: 24320
Ditto S+P. While the short term momentum indicators suggest a run lower the longer term charts still point higher.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower Daily Indicators: Up Weekly Indicators:  Up
Preferred Strategy:  Neutral
Resistance Support
24650 Minor 24264 Session low
24600 Minor 23922 1 Dec low
24550 Minor 23850 Minor
24534 Session high- all-time high 23800 30 Nov low
24400 Minor 23750 27 Nov low

ASX SPI: 5965
The ASX had a choppy ride again on Monday but fished near the lows, and with the momentum indicators now aligning lower a run back towards 5900 would seem possible.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Neutral Daily Indicators: Turning lower Weekly Indicators:  Up
Preferred Strategy:  Further choppy trade could be in store and in the short term I prefer to be short. The weeklies still point higher though and thus buying dips towards 5900 may be a medium term plan.
Resistance Support
6100 Minor 5973 Session low
6070 Minor 5960 24 Nov low
6050 Minor 5948 1 Dec low
6043/46 13 Nov high/9 Nov high 5929/27 20 Nov low/16 Nov low
6018 Session high 5900 Minor

XAUUSD: 1276
Gold had a tight Monday of 1271/77, leaving the outlook unchanged. We are still at the 1275/1280 level  which has acted as a rough pivot since early October and this could continue although eventually I suspect we could see a downside break, toward 1260 and even 1250. Watch Silver, which seems to be leading the way lower.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher Daily Indicators: Neutral Weekly Indicators:  Neutral
Preferred Strategy:  Neutral – the short term momentum indicators seem to be turning a little higher but otherwise, the broad range-trade between 1265/95 seems set to remain intact for now.
Resistance Support
1309 (50% of 1357/1261) 1271 1 Dec low/Session low
11299 27 Nov high 1261 6 Oct low/(61.8% of 1205/1358)/200 DMA
1297 30 Nov high 1258 Rising trend support
1289/1285 1 Dec high/100 DMA 1251 8 Aug low
1277 Session high 1242 26 July low

XAGUSD: 16.34
Silver had a tight Monday session of 16.24/43 and beginning to look increasingly heavy as medium term support levels begin to look rather thin.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher Daily Indicators: Turning lower? Weekly Indicators:  Neutral
Preferred Strategy:  The short term momentum indicators look mildly positive on Tuesday but the dailies are picking up some downside momentum so selling rallies is mildly preferred, with a tight SL in place.

Sell Silver @ 16.75. SL @ 17.25, TP @ 15.90

Resistance Support
16.94 (61.8% of 17.38/16.24) 16.24 1 Dec low /Session low
16.80 (50% of 17.38/16.24) 16.12 7 Aug low
16.67 (38.2% of 17.38/16.24) 16.00 Minor
16.55 1 Dec high 15.88 (76.4% of 15.1818.21)
16.43 Session high 15.75 Minor

WTI: 57.41
WTI traded a range of 57.33/58.32 on Tuesday, finishing near the lows and looking as though we may see a deeper test of 57.00/56.50
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher? Daily Indicators: Neutral – Turning lower Weekly Indicators:  Turning higher
Preferred Strategy:  The mixed look of the momentum indicators suggests a neutral stance. Overall though I still think we may see a move towards 60.00 at some stage and buying dips may still be the plan. A break of the rising trend support, currently at 54.40 would negate that theory and bring more sideways consolidation.
Resistance Support
60.00 Psychological 57.33 Session low
59.02 24 Nov high 56.27 1 Dec low
58.90/95 200 WMA/27 Nov high 55.72 (23.6% of 45.56/58.95)
58.86 1 Dec high 55.00 Minor
58.30 Session high 54.80 14 Nov high